Pick 2: St Louis +9.5
Pick 3: San Francisco -4
Pick 4: Houston +3
As we continue to sink this ship, I think less about these picks and whether they are good or not. The only thing I'm thinking about is what can I learn this year that I would be able to apply statistically into the algorithm.
If I think about these picks, I would probably stay away from Houston because all the injuries and St Louis because they've covered very few times this year. But most times that I say things like that the opposite happens. We'll stick with these 4 visiting teams and bet they will all win big and give us, believe it or not, our first winning week.
This week we'll up at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 59.9% |
| ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE | -9.5 | -8 | 1.5 | 58.5% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 4 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 58.3% |
| HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI | -3 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 58.1% |
| OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY | -11.5 | -8.2 | 3.3 | 56.5% |
| MINNESOTA @ DETROIT | -10 | -14 | -4 | 54.4% |
| KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS | -10.5 | -16 | -5.5 | 54.4% |
| TAMPA BAY @ JACKSONVILLE | 2.5 | -3 | -5.5 | 53.9% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | -3 | -5 | -2 | 52.8% |
| CHICAGO @ DENVER | -3.5 | -6 | -2.5 | 52.8% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON | 8 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 52.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE | -16.5 | -18.7 | -2.2 | 51.9% |
| BUFFALO @ SAN DIEGO | -7 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 51.4% |
| ATLANTA @ CAROLINA | 3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ DALLAS | -3.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 49.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
3 comments:
I made a slight change in my model based on some of the struggles so far this season (and back tested the change, of course). I have Cowboys -3 and Falcons -3 for this week so far.
Maybe you should change the name of your site ;).
Maybe you should change the name of your site ;).
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