2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: New Orleans -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: St Louis +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston +3 correct NFL point spread pick

As we continue to sink this ship, I think less about these picks and whether they are good or not. The only thing I'm thinking about is what can I learn this year that I would be able to apply statistically into the algorithm.

If I think about these picks, I would probably stay away from Houston because all the injuries and St Louis because they've covered very few times this year. But most times that I say things like that the opposite happens. We'll stick with these 4 visiting teams and bet they will all win big and give us, believe it or not, our first winning week.

This week we'll up at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season.























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE3.573.559.9%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE-9.5-81.558.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA47.63.658.3%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI-32.35.358.1%
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY-11.5-8.23.356.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT-10-14-454.4%
KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS-10.5-16-5.554.4%
TAMPA BAY @ JACKSONVILLE2.5-3-5.553.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI-3-5-252.8%
CHICAGO @ DENVER-3.5-6-2.552.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON812.54.552.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE-16.5-18.7-2.251.9%
BUFFALO @ SAN DIEGO-70.37.351.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA34.91.950.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS-3.536.549.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Comments

I made a slight change in my model based on some of the struggles so far this season (and back tested the change, of course). I have Cowboys -3 and Falcons -3 for this week so far.
acntspeel said…
Maybe you should change the name of your site ;).
acntspeel said…
Maybe you should change the name of your site ;).