2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: Detroit +6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Miami +7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick

This blows. Down 20% starting the forth quarter, hail mary? Noooo, be smart. One perfect week and this can turn around in a hurry. As always, I like my picks this week so that's probably a bad thing. I'm glad pick #1 will be watched while eating Turkey. Miami is on a roll, any metrics for momentum? I feel I'm jumping the SF boat a bit too late. They are perfect against the spread (see Standings) so that would have to continue this streak, but I like that they are underdogs. Finally, the Atlanta picks is one they should cover and finish strong, MIN is the worst team in the league.

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $110 per game for a total of $440.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 12 of the 2011 NFL season.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT62.8-3.259.6%
MIAMI @ DALLAS-7-4359.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE-37.110.158.5%
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA-9.5-12.6-3.158.4%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS-7-14.7-7.752.6%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY10.56.5-4.052.5%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS-8-6251.4%
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE-4-6.2-2.251.4%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI-7.5-9.8-2.351.0%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE38.65.650.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ PHILADELPHIA310.07.050.0%
CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS3.59.15.650.0%
TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE-3-5-249.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS-3-5-249.0%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO-6.5-2.14.448.3%
CHICAGO @ OAKLAND-5-4.10.9NA


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

Pick 1: NY Giants -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Buffalo +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Seattle +2 correct NFL point spread pick

Although all picks last week went for a whopping 66.7%, the confidence picks still struggled at 50%. Last week was the first week of the second half and this is where the picks should really start going strong. That 66% is a small sign of improvement, but the confidence picks will need to pick up the slack.

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next week). Giving us $155 per game for a total of $465.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season.

















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS-4.5-7-2.562.5%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI-28.110.158.5%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS-25.77.758.2%
NY JETS @ DENVER69356.9%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE-7-10-356.8%
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA-6-3.22.855.6%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON7.512.44.952.1%
TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY-14-22-852.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO-9.5-12.3-2.851.0%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND-15-22-750.8%
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA15.44.450.7%
SAN DIEGO @ CHICAGO-3.5-12.550.6%
CAROLINA @ DETROIT-7-8.1-1.150.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND1-3-449.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: Buffalo +5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Washington +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week the picks went 2-3. No, I have not given up, never! It's been crazy traveling and I missed the boat on the Thursday game. Thanks to all for the encouragement. Look for some serious ROI starting now and throughout the playoffs. We have a lot of ground to catch up. This does not mean we're going to put all the eggs in one basket though. We continue to use a percentage of bankroll for each week, minimizing the chance of bankruptcy while optimizing ROI. Go Bears!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 2 weeks). Giving us $120 per game for a total of $480.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season.























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ DALLAS-5.538.572.4%
TENNESSEE @ CAROLINA-3.536.562.0%
WASHINGTON @ MIAMI-45.29.259.1%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY-13.5-16.9-3.458.9%
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE6.514.37.856.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS35-4.354.6%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS-1.523.552.0%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA-14-10.1-0.151.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA0-2.0-2.050.9%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY-32-150.3%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO-3-2150.3%
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY35250.3%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI36349.3%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO-3.5-13.2-9.749.3%
ST LOUIS @ CLEVELAND-2.5-11.548.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

Pick 1: Washington +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago +8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Tennessee -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: San Diego +5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Last week the picks went 3-2. We recouped some ground, but still are far behind. I'm considering different variations of picks, waiting until later weeks for official picks, and other strategies but will not implement until back-tested during the off-season. For now, lets stick with this and hope for similar late week success as we've had in previous years.

This week we'll increase to 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 3 weeks). Giving us $100 per game for a total of $500.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season.
















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON3.5-1-4.561.6%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA-8-2.85.259.5%
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE-3-5-258.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA-3.5-6-2.558.3%
GREEN BAY @ SAN DIEGO5.53-2.558.1%
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY-4.5-7-2.556.1%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND-8.5-53.555.5%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH-3-6-352.7%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO-1.5-3-0.252.0%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS-11.5-14.0-2.551.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS-8-10-250.6%
CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON-11-9.51.550.1%
DENVER @ OAKLAND-8-9.4-1.450.0%
ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS710350.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.