Pick 2: Miami +7
Pick 3: San Francisco +3
Pick 3: Atlanta -9.5
This blows. Down 20% starting the forth quarter, hail mary? Noooo, be smart. One perfect week and this can turn around in a hurry. As always, I like my picks this week so that's probably a bad thing. I'm glad pick #1 will be watched while eating Turkey. Miami is on a roll, any metrics for momentum? I feel I'm jumping the SF boat a bit too late. They are perfect against the spread (see Standings) so that would have to continue this streak, but I like that they are underdogs. Finally, the Atlanta picks is one they should cover and finish strong, MIN is the worst team in the league.
This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $110 per game for a total of $440.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 12 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREEN BAY @ DETROIT | 6 | 2.8 | -3.2 | 59.6% |
| MIAMI @ DALLAS | -7 | -4 | 3 | 59.1% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE | -3 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 58.5% |
| MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA | -9.5 | -12.6 | -3.1 | 58.4% |
| NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS | -7 | -14.7 | -7.7 | 52.6% |
| PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY | 10.5 | 6.5 | -4.0 | 52.5% |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -8 | -6 | 2 | 51.4% |
| WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE | -4 | -6.2 | -2.2 | 51.4% |
| CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | -7.5 | -9.8 | -2.3 | 51.0% |
| HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 50.0% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ PHILADELPHIA | 3 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 50.0% |
| CAROLINA @ INDIANAPOLIS | 3.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 50.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ TENNESSEE | -3 | -5 | -2 | 49.5% |
| ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS | -3 | -5 | -2 | 49.0% |
| DENVER @ SAN DIEGO | -6.5 | -2.1 | 4.4 | 48.3% |
| CHICAGO @ OAKLAND | -5 | -4.1 | 0.9 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.