Pick 2: Buffalo +2
Pick 3: Seattle +2
Although all picks last week went for a whopping 66.7%, the confidence picks still struggled at 50%. Last week was the first week of the second half and this is where the picks should really start going strong. That 66% is a small sign of improvement, but the confidence picks will need to pick up the slack.
This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next week). Giving us $155 per game for a total of $465.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS | -4.5 | -7 | -2.5 | 62.5% |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -2 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 58.5% |
| SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS | -2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 58.2% |
| NY JETS @ DENVER | 6 | 9 | 3 | 56.9% |
| CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE | -7 | -10 | -3 | 56.8% |
| TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | -6 | -3.2 | 2.8 | 55.6% |
| DALLAS @ WASHINGTON | 7.5 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 52.1% |
| TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY | -14 | -22 | -8 | 52.0% |
| ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | -9.5 | -12.3 | -2.8 | 51.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND | -15 | -22 | -7 | 50.8% |
| OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | 1 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 50.7% |
| SAN DIEGO @ CHICAGO | -3.5 | -1 | 2.5 | 50.6% |
| CAROLINA @ DETROIT | -7 | -8.1 | -1.1 | 50.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND | 1 | -3 | -4 | 49.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
3 comments:
I'm with you on Seattle.
Full picks: Bears -3.5, Jaguars -1, Seahawks + 1, and Bengals +7.
totally agree with those picks. altho i am also high on the detroit lions game.
this blows, good week probable
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