Pick 2: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 3: Washington +4
Pick 4: Green Bay -13.5
Last week the picks went 2-3. No, I have not given up, never! It's been crazy traveling and I missed the boat on the Thursday game. Thanks to all for the encouragement. Look for some serious ROI starting now and throughout the playoffs. We have a lot of ground to catch up. This does not mean we're going to put all the eggs in one basket though. We continue to use a percentage of bankroll for each week, minimizing the chance of bankruptcy while optimizing ROI. Go Bears!
This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 2 weeks). Giving us $120 per game for a total of $480.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFFALO @ DALLAS | -5.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 72.4% |
| TENNESSEE @ CAROLINA | -3.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 62.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ MIAMI | -4 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 59.1% |
| MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY | -13.5 | -16.9 | -3.4 | 58.9% |
| BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE | 6.5 | 14.3 | 7.8 | 56.5% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | 3 | 5 | -4.3 | 54.6% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | -1.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 52.0% |
| ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA | -14 | -10.1 | -0.1 | 51.9% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA | 0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 50.9% |
| DENVER @ KANSAS CITY | -3 | 2 | -1 | 50.3% |
| DETROIT @ CHICAGO | -3 | -2 | 1 | 50.3% |
| HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 3 | 5 | 2 | 50.3% |
| PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 3 | 6 | 3 | 49.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -3.5 | -13.2 | -9.7 | 49.3% |
| ST LOUIS @ CLEVELAND | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 | 48.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
2 comments:
We both agree that the Bills are a high confidence pick. I have the Panthers though. Total list:
Saints +1, Rams +3, Bills +5.5, Giants +3.5, Buccaneers +3, and Panthers -3
By the way, I developed an algorithm that handles multiple simultaneous bets using the Kelly Criterion. Here's a short write up explaining the idea. It's a different approach to your allocation, but I believe closer to the main idea of the Kelly Criterion. Only useful if you believe your confidence is accurate over a relatively short timeline.
Good luck this week.
Just for those of us who are keeping track of your lower-percentage picks (which, historically, are actually not bad down to 53% confidence), who does your system actually like in Jax@Indy? The 'prediction' and 'Vegas-prediction' numbers don't quite add up . . .
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