2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: Buffalo +5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Washington +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week the picks went 2-3. No, I have not given up, never! It's been crazy traveling and I missed the boat on the Thursday game. Thanks to all for the encouragement. Look for some serious ROI starting now and throughout the playoffs. We have a lot of ground to catch up. This does not mean we're going to put all the eggs in one basket though. We continue to use a percentage of bankroll for each week, minimizing the chance of bankruptcy while optimizing ROI. Go Bears!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 2 weeks). Giving us $120 per game for a total of $480.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ DALLAS-5.538.572.4%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY-13.5-16.9-3.458.9%
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE6.514.37.856.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS-1.523.552.0%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA-14-10.1-0.151.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA0-2.0-2.050.9%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO-3.5-13.2-9.749.3%
ST LOUIS @ CLEVELAND-2.5-11.548.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


We both agree that the Bills are a high confidence pick. I have the Panthers though. Total list:

Saints +1, Rams +3, Bills +5.5, Giants +3.5, Buccaneers +3, and Panthers -3

By the way, I developed an algorithm that handles multiple simultaneous bets using the Kelly Criterion. Here's a short write up explaining the idea. It's a different approach to your allocation, but I believe closer to the main idea of the Kelly Criterion. Only useful if you believe your confidence is accurate over a relatively short timeline.

Good luck this week.
Mr McP said…
Just for those of us who are keeping track of your lower-percentage picks (which, historically, are actually not bad down to 53% confidence), who does your system actually like in Jax@Indy? The 'prediction' and 'Vegas-prediction' numbers don't quite add up . . .