Pick 2: Chicago +8
Pick 3: Tennessee -3
Pick 4: Arizona -3.5
Pick 5: San Diego +5.5
Last week the picks went 3-2. We recouped some ground, but still are far behind. I'm considering different variations of picks, waiting until later weeks for official picks, and other strategies but will not implement until back-tested during the off-season. For now, lets stick with this and hope for similar late week success as we've had in previous years.
This week we'll increase to 18% of bankroll (and stay there for the next 3 weeks). Giving us $100 per game for a total of $500.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON | 3.5 | -1 | -4.5 | 61.6% |
| CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA | -8 | -2.8 | 5.2 | 59.5% |
| CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | -3 | -5 | -2 | 58.3% |
| ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA | -3.5 | -6 | -2.5 | 58.3% |
| GREEN BAY @ SAN DIEGO | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | 58.1% |
| MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY | -4.5 | -7 | -2.5 | 56.1% |
| NY GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND | -8.5 | -5 | 3.5 | 55.5% |
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -3 | -6 | -3 | 52.7% |
| NY JETS @ BUFFALO | -1.5 | -3 | -0.2 | 52.0% |
| SEATTLE @ DALLAS | -11.5 | -14.0 | -2.5 | 51.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | -8 | -10 | -2 | 50.6% |
| CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON | -11 | -9.5 | 1.5 | 50.1% |
| DENVER @ OAKLAND | -8 | -9.4 | -1.4 | 50.0% |
| ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS | 7 | 10 | 3 | 50.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
3 comments:
So far, I got Bills -1, Bengals +3, Packers -6, and Eagles -8.5, so we have lots of disagreement. But don't worry, I'm having my own struggles early this season: only 5-5-1 to date. Might have another couple of picks later in the week.
Adding Seahawks +11
Week 10?
Have you given up?
-- an interested lurker on your blog.
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