2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: St. Louis +13.5
Pick 2: New England -3
Pick 3: Detroit -3
Pick 4: Houston -9.5
Pick 5: Baltimore -13

Last week the picks went 0-4. Things went as bad as they could go. This week we'll hopefully make up some ground. I really have nothing else to say than just, this is not a get rich quick thing, but rather a long term investment hoping that year over year we keep increasing ROI.

This week we'll stay at 16% of bankroll. Giving us $85 per game for a total of $425.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 8 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS	13.5	12.6	-0.9	72.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH	3	7.5	4.5	71.2%
DETROIT @ DENVER	3	6.3	3.3	66.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.5	-11.7	-2.2	62.2%
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE	-13	-24.8	-11.8	59.2%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA	-3.5	3.1	6.6	55.0%
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE	3	3.5	0.5	53.6%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON	6	10	4	50.4%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	7	3.5	50.3%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.5	-1.6	1.9	50.0%
MIAMI @ NY GIANTS	-10	-14	-4	49.1%
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO	-8.5	-5	3.5	48.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	-8.5	-3	5.5	47.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

Updated: Oct 20: removed Houston for injuries, added BAL and GB similar reasons.
Pick 1:
Houston +3
Pick 1: Indianapolis +14
Pick 2: Cleveland -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Washington +2.5
Pick 4: Baltimore -7.5
Pick 5: Green Bay -8.5

Last week the picks went 2-2 and the week before that 3-2, not good, but at least better than past seasons for this time. Staying afloat and winning a bit is good for this early in the season with hopes that by the end of the season, as its happened in previous years, the models pick up some good inefficiencies. It won't hurt though to have a great week this week 7. Lets make it happen.

This week we'll increment slightly to 16% of bankroll. Giving us approximately (rounded)
$125$100 per game for a total of $500.

I personally would've picked Green Bay again this week. Best football team right now, and last week Minnesota took a beating literally. Every bet I've made this year for Houston has lost so not too excited about my top pick, prove me wrong Texans. I like Cleveland and Baltimore, but the Ravens didn't make the cut (but now they do). Good luck and go Bears!

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 7 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-3	2.1	5.1	62.9%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ORLEANS	-14	-5.6	8.4	62.5%
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND	-3	-6.1	-3.1	59.8%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA	-2.5	11.8	14.3	58.4%
BALTIMORE @ JACKSONVILLE	7.5	11.0	3.5	56.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	8.5	11.5	3.0	55.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ARIZONA	3.5	12.3	8.8	51.0%
ST LOUIS @ DALLAS	-13	-8.5	4.5	50.1%
ATLANTA @ DETROIT	-3.5	-1.0	2.5	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	-3.5	-5	-1.5	50.0%
DENVER @ MIAMI	-2	-4.3	-2.3	50.0%
CHICAGO - TAMPA BAY	1	-2.2	-3.2	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NY JETS	2	5	3	49.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

Pick 1: Atlanta -4
Pick 2: New England -7
Pick 3: Detroit -4.5
Pick 4: Jacksonville +12

UPDATE: Since I forgot to include the wager, I just assumed 15% bankroll as last week.

No time to talk this week, pure results:

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 6 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-4	-15.7	-11.7	68.7%
DALLAS @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-17.7	-10.7	62.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT	-4.5	-6.3	-1.8	60.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH	-12	-10.1	1.9	59.2%
ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY	-15	-18.9	-3.9	56.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	4.5	7	2.5	55.7%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-7	-10.0	-3.0	55.3%
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-9.9	-2.4	54.3%
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND	-6	-11.3	-5.3	51.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	1	-4.3	-5.3	50.9%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	-3	-6	-3	50.5%
BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS	-3.5	3	6.5	50.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI	-7	-10	-3	49.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Picks Week 5

Pick 1: San Diego -4
Pick 2: Kansas City +2
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2
Pick 4: Houston -5.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay +3

Are you ready for the "Beginning" of the season? This week NFLpickles picks become official.

Why is NFLpickles awesome? I've been doing this since 2007 and posted all results here for you to track. Unlike other handicappers out there, you will see when I do well and when we don't. If I do well and you use my picks, we both do well.

The other important strategic piece is how the money is handled. It optimizes gain and reduces risk for bankruptcy. As last year, we continue using Kelly's Formula to compute the percentage of the bankroll to use each week. The result for this week was 17%, but to play a bit conservatively during this first few weeks of betting, we'll bring it down to 15% of bankroll(this year NFL Pickles bankroll starts at $3,000). $450/5=$90 per game.

This is why last year we ended up only at 52% ATS, but still came out with almost 20% ROI. Not a great year, but good enough.

This year I won't be able to comment much and dig deeper in each game. Work has taken over, but at least I have found time in the middle of the night to run the models and update the blog just before Sunday. For those wondering, I did not make any changes to the algorithm during the off-season. Let's crush it this year.

As always, your comments and picks are very valuable. Please comment or let me know if there is key injury in one of the game I chose, because although I check the NFL injury report every week, I could've missed something.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	4	10	6	64.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2	3	5	59.5%
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE	-2	3	5	59.1%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON	-5.5	-9	3.5	58.8%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	0.5	3.5	58.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	6.5	15.2	8.7	56.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	-5	-3	2	55.6%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-14.4	-5.4	54.8%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA	6	10	4	54.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ BUFFALO	3	3.9	0.9	51.9%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	-7	-4.5	51.4%
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH	-3	-6.5	-3.5	50.7%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS	-10	-17.4	-7.4	37.9%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.