2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

Updated: Oct 20: removed Houston for injuries, added BAL and GB similar reasons.
Pick 1:
Houston +3
Pick 1: Indianapolis +14 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cleveland -3 PUSH
Pick 3: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Baltimore -7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Green Bay -8.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Last week the picks went 2-2 and the week before that 3-2, not good, but at least better than past seasons for this time. Staying afloat and winning a bit is good for this early in the season with hopes that by the end of the season, as its happened in previous years, the models pick up some good inefficiencies. It won't hurt though to have a great week this week 7. Lets make it happen.

This week we'll increment slightly to 16% of bankroll. Giving us approximately (rounded)
$125$100 per game for a total of $500.

I personally would've picked Green Bay again this week. Best football team right now, and last week Minnesota took a beating literally. Every bet I've made this year for Houston has lost so not too excited about my top pick, prove me wrong Texans. I like Cleveland and Baltimore, but the Ravens didn't make the cut (but now they do). Good luck and go Bears!

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 7 of the 2011 NFL season.










































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE-32.15.162.9%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ORLEANS-14-5.68.462.5%
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND-3-6.1-3.159.8%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA-2.511.814.358.4%
BALTIMORE @ JACKSONVILLE7.511.03.556.0%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA8.511.53.055.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ARIZONA3.512.38.851.0%
ST LOUIS @ DALLAS-13-8.54.550.1%
ATLANTA @ DETROIT-3.5-1.02.550.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND-3.5-5-1.550.0%
DENVER @ MIAMI-2-4.3-2.350.0%
CHICAGO - TAMPA BAY1-2.2-3.250.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NY JETS25349.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

10 comments:

DDW said...

Jaime,

I had a very bad week last week going 0 for 4 against your picks. I'm hoping to make a change this week, but I won't post my picks until later on. I did want to comment on Houston though. That offense is very dependant on 2 things....Arien Foster and Andre Johnson. Since Tennessee has a rush defense in the top 10 of the league and Andre is doubtful for the game I would strongly suggest re-considering this game. Anyway, there's my 2 cents for now.

probablepicks.com said...

So far, I just have Lions -3, with several other potential picks for later this week. My picks went 4-3-1 last week.

Jaime, you may find a new page I created helpful. You can quickly check QB status here.

DDW said...

My picks vs yours:

NO -14
SEA +3
CAR -2.5
BAL -7.5
GB -8.5

This is a weird week...I guess we'll see how it plays out. Good luck.

probablepicks.com said...

Added Houston +3.

Jaime said...

DDW, should've stuck with the Houston pick right?

Patslover said...

I only pick 4 teams in the pick em' I am in and I went 2-2 this week because I picked Tenn and Oakland, both were stupid decisions. Tenn and the Oakland, probably along with Detriot if Stafford is hurt, will continue to decline, and I think that the top 5 teams right now are 1. Packers, 2. Pats, 3. 49ers, 4. Saints, 5. I will go with the Ravens here. I need a 3-1 or even better 4-0 week 8, really hoping for it

DDW said...

Jaime,

You were right about houston. I will take fulll responsibility for that mistake. Maybe from now on I will stick to just showing my picks vs yours.

Janna Christiansen said...

I think your analysis was a "little" off on the Indy pick... +56 more like!

Jaime said...

Hi Janna, thank you for rubbing it in. What a terrible week! But hey, very few handicappers put themselves out there like I do. We'll make it up soon

Jaime said...

DDW, houston was not your fault it's all me. I was just joking.