Pick 2: New England -3
Pick 3: Detroit -3
Pick 4: Houston -9.5
Pick 5: Baltimore -13
Last week the picks went 0-4. Things went as bad as they could go. This week we'll hopefully make up some ground. I really have nothing else to say than just, this is not a get rich quick thing, but rather a long term investment hoping that year over year we keep increasing ROI.
This week we'll stay at 16% of bankroll. Giving us $85 per game for a total of $425.
Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 8 of the 2011 NFL season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS | 13.5 | 12.6 | -0.9 | 72.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH | 3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 71.2% |
| DETROIT @ DENVER | 3 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 66.2% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | -9.5 | -11.7 | -2.2 | 62.2% |
| ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE | -13 | -24.8 | -11.8 | 59.2% |
| MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA | -3.5 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 55.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE | 3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 53.6% |
| BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON | 6 | 10 | 4 | 50.4% |
| SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 50.3% |
| DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | -3.5 | -1.6 | 1.9 | 50.0% |
| MIAMI @ NY GIANTS | -10 | -14 | -4 | 49.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO | -8.5 | -5 | 3.5 | 48.5% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE | -8.5 | -3 | 5.5 | 47.8% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
5 comments:
We agree on Ravens -13. I may have more picks by the end of the week, but it's looking doubtful.
Jamie - Could you double-check your "Prediction-Vegas -> Pick" numbers for the New Orleans game? The published numbers don't seem to make sense.
Mr McP thanks for catching this. The pick is actually a very dangerous one. Yes, it's St. Louis who is 0-5 ATS. I'm not going to let my emotion drive this so I'm sticking to it.
Jamie,
Best book I've ever read with regards to real life statistics... I think you would love it:
"Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
I love your blog... nothing better than posting in real time, win or lose.... Keep up the great work!
-Jamie
My picks vs yours:
NO -13.5
NE -3
DET -3
JAC +9.5
ARI +13
Good luck Jaime
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