2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: NY Giants +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Two games this week were teams have something to play for, the playoffs. Well, maybe Oakland although not mathematically out of it, slight chance of making it. Better for the Colts who need a must win to clinch or be in a better position in their division. The Packers-Giants game is huge for the Giants. Here again, the Packers are in a similar position as the Raiders, not completely out but pretty much. I expect the Giants to come out furious after last week's devastating loss.

Bring it it down a bit to save for the playoffs, using 20% of bankroll we designate approximately $200 to each game.

Next week there will be no picks.































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY-33.96.964.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND317.614.660.5%
NY JETS @ CHICAGO-1-2.6-1.658.0%
DETROIT @ MIAMI-3.5-1.32.256.6%
HOUSTON @ DENVER36.93.955.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND310.57.555.6%
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH-14.5-16.9-2.452.4%
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA-14-9.05.052.2%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA-2.5-0.71.851.6%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO83.54.551.5%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY-6-14.2-8.250.0%
WASHINGTON @ JACKSONVILLE-72.29.250.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI7.523.916.449.1%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA6.53.5-348.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS-26.28.248.0%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY-5-8.0-3.047.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Houston +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit +6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Washington +6 correct NFL point spread pick

4 visiting underdogs this week. Again, the model is favoring visiting teams and coincidentally this week they are all underdogs. We got Houston, who in my opinion shouldn't even be underdogs against Tennessee. Did you see that comeback yesterday? Next we have KC. The Rams disappointed me last week. This is an important game for both teams, but KC is the stronger team. Detroit, now at the top of the ATS standings should give Tampa a scare. Lots of scoring will favor the Lions in this one. Finally, we have the Redskins. I don't like the Redskins and it seems that Dallas is playing relatively well since firing their head coach. But we have to stick to what we got, hopefully they keep it close as they did last week with Tampa.

Other notable picks include: Bears and Browns.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately $115 to each game.































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE-1.54.86.365.4%
KANSAS CITY @ ST LOUIS-1.52.33.863.7%
DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY-61762.8%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS-6-1560.8%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI-1.50.92.457.1%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA-1.56.37.857.0%
DENVER @ OAKLAND-6.5-9.5-354.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS-33654.7%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS-5-7-253.3%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE622.616.652.8%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA-2.51.13.652.1%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI-5.5-7-1.552.0%
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH-6-2.63.450.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE-1.5-2.1-0.650.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO-9-10-149.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND-10.5-14-3.548.7%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Philadelphia -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: St. Louis +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Finally a good week! and much needed. This week again the model is favoring visiting teams. Last week we had Atlanta barely covering and the Rams covering on the road. (plus NE's @home embarrassment to the Jets, covered by way more than 3). This week, I have two strong teams on the road playing non-playoff contenders. Philadelphia goes to Dallas and takes care of business. Baltimore's defense gets two TDs and blows past 5-7 Houston. Finally, the Rams are underdogs by 9.5 in New Orleans. This team is at the top of the ATS Standings and I'm not sure why they are not been given a bit more credit. The Rams lose the game, but keep it close.

Other notable picks include: Giants, Bills.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately 150 to each game.































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS36.63.362.9%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON36.73.760.5%
ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS-9.5-5.4460.1%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA1.531.559.2%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO-1-3.3-2.358.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-7-5.02.056.1%
DENVER @ ARIZONA4-4-853.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA7.514.67.152.4%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-9-6.42.652.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE38.65.651.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO3-3.2-6.250.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS-6.5-60.550.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON2.5-2.2-4.749.6%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE-4.5-6-1.549.1%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT75.4-1.649.0%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-4.5-11.6-7.147.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.