Super Bowl Pick

Pick: Indianapolis -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$180

How sad it is that the season has come to an end, so fast. I should really take up sports investing in some other sport in order to be into it throughout the year. Unfortunately, "real work" and kids will not allow me to do this (unless...).

Talking about work. My co-workers and I are doing this NFL picks (straight-up) throughout the NFL playoffs. So far, of course, I'm ahead even though they have the advantage of looking at my picks before they make theirs. It has come down to only two (me and Dave). The only way Dave can win is if we pick opposites and he's right. For a second, I thought of posting my pick after the coming Friday so he can't see my pick, but I'm so confident against the spread (yet even more straight up) that I will reveal it early for you, Dave.

Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever best against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph. Forget Dwight Freeney and all other small details. This is about Drew vs Peyton, I chose Peyton.

New Orleans deserves to win. The city and the fans need this ring, but NO not at homw is a no-no. Remember the 3-point victory against STL, NO should have crushed St. Louis! And the list goes on about the Saints when their visiting. In the Super Bowl, their playing at a neutral field, but I think its all about being at home or not. And when they're not at home they, s$%@. Even with a spread of 5.5 as of today, my pick is Peyton to win at least by 7. In fact, I will predict the final score to be: 35-27. Betting only 10% of bankroll in order to enjoy the success of the season regardless of the outcome.

Enjoy the off-season everyone, and if you know someone or someone that knows someone that needs statistical analysis in the sports area, send'em my way. Great season everyone and thank you for all your encouragement, feedback, and contribution.

Sincerely,

Jaime
admin(at)nflpickles.com


Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for SUPER BOWL 44!





















GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SUPER BOWL: NEW ORLEANS - INDIANAPOLIS-5.5-8-2.556%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

No Conference Picks, NFL Pickles on Vacation

I am currently on an enchanted island in the Caribbean. The statistical software that runs the computer based NFL picks and game simulations was left in Chicago. Sorry for the inconvenience. I'll be back to put up THE super bowl pick with score predictions.

2009 Divisional Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 correct NFL point spread pick + $127.27
Pick 2: New York +7 correct NFL point spread pick + $127.27
Pick 3: Dallas +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$140
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $127.27


If anything has taught us about last week's games is that anything can happen. Throw away your biases, ignore consensus picks, look at the numbers, and make solid picks. You do not have to agree with me, and if you don't, tell me why. Our goal is to come out profitable every playoff week and finish above 100% ROI. Risking 30% of bankroll this week equals $140 per game.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for the Divisional Playoff games 2009.










































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS-7-9.3-2.359%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO-7-2.24.858%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA-2.51.51.057%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS-6.5-10.0-3.556%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 Wild Card Playoffs

Pick 1: Packers incorrect NFL point spread pick -$175
Pick 2: Cowbows correct NFL point spread pick + $159.09
Pick 3: Jets correct NFL point spread pick + $159.09

Most of you will probably disagree with the Cowboys and Jets pick right? According to Covers, 60% of players pick New England against the spread, 62% Green Bay, 60% Cincinnati, and 58% Philadelphia. Not to fear though, when confidence is high, NFL Pickles has proven to be much more successful than the wisdom of the crowds. At Project Point Spread for example, last time I checked, the fan base was 111-107, 53% ATS. True, they are picking all games, and for that, it is actually pretty good. ThePredictionTracker has only 10 computer based NFL football predictions models above 53%.

For the playoffs, we are increasing risk a bit since there is only a few games left in the season. Also, we have a better idea of the accuracy against the spread, which lifts percent of payroll to use in a given week. 3 games at $175 each uses 30% of bankroll for the week. Here is why I like this week's picks:

Packers @ Arizona $175 - Green Bay finished the regular season with the best record against the spread. Packers went for it in the last week, Arizona slacked off. I like Rodgers' attitude. Boldin is questionable for the Cardinals, but also is Charles Woodson for GB. Green Bay's defensive strategy is simple: double team Fitzgerald at all times and you will get the same result that happened in SF in Week 14 Monday Night.

Philadelphia @ Dallas $175 - 1) The Eagles scored zero points last week in Dallas. 2) They're playing in Dallas. 3) The computer based model says so.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati $175 - Defense wins games, and the Jets have a huge defensive advantage by allowing 4 points and 50 yards less per game than Cinci.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Wild Card Playoffs 2009.










































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA-15.06.057%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS-4-7.0-3.056%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI-2.56.0

8.5

56%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND-3-4.0-1.051%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.