2009 Wild Card Playoffs

Pick 1: Packers incorrect NFL point spread pick -$175
Pick 2: Cowbows correct NFL point spread pick + $159.09
Pick 3: Jets correct NFL point spread pick + $159.09

Most of you will probably disagree with the Cowboys and Jets pick right? According to Covers, 60% of players pick New England against the spread, 62% Green Bay, 60% Cincinnati, and 58% Philadelphia. Not to fear though, when confidence is high, NFL Pickles has proven to be much more successful than the wisdom of the crowds. At Project Point Spread for example, last time I checked, the fan base was 111-107, 53% ATS. True, they are picking all games, and for that, it is actually pretty good. ThePredictionTracker has only 10 computer based NFL football predictions models above 53%.

For the playoffs, we are increasing risk a bit since there is only a few games left in the season. Also, we have a better idea of the accuracy against the spread, which lifts percent of payroll to use in a given week. 3 games at $175 each uses 30% of bankroll for the week. Here is why I like this week's picks:

Packers @ Arizona $175 - Green Bay finished the regular season with the best record against the spread. Packers went for it in the last week, Arizona slacked off. I like Rodgers' attitude. Boldin is questionable for the Cardinals, but also is Charles Woodson for GB. Green Bay's defensive strategy is simple: double team Fitzgerald at all times and you will get the same result that happened in SF in Week 14 Monday Night.

Philadelphia @ Dallas $175 - 1) The Eagles scored zero points last week in Dallas. 2) They're playing in Dallas. 3) The computer based model says so.

NY Jets @ Cincinnati $175 - Defense wins games, and the Jets have a huge defensive advantage by allowing 4 points and 50 yards less per game than Cinci.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Wild Card Playoffs 2009.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA-15.06.057%



How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


HappyBreathNet said…
Nice call on the Cowboys and the Jets. I don't handicap playoff games (regular season statistics go out the window). My intuition was on the side of Arizona and Philadelphia. 50%, just like intuition generally runs.

Have you ever done any horserace handicapping? I'm thinking of taking that up as an off-season hobby.

- Happy