Super Bowl Pick

Pick: Indianapolis -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$180

How sad it is that the season has come to an end, so fast. I should really take up sports investing in some other sport in order to be into it throughout the year. Unfortunately, "real work" and kids will not allow me to do this (unless...).

Talking about work. My co-workers and I are doing this NFL picks (straight-up) throughout the NFL playoffs. So far, of course, I'm ahead even though they have the advantage of looking at my picks before they make theirs. It has come down to only two (me and Dave). The only way Dave can win is if we pick opposites and he's right. For a second, I thought of posting my pick after the coming Friday so he can't see my pick, but I'm so confident against the spread (yet even more straight up) that I will reveal it early for you, Dave.

Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever best against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph. Forget Dwight Freeney and all other small details. This is about Drew vs Peyton, I chose Peyton.

New Orleans deserves to win. The city and the fans need this ring, but NO not at homw is a no-no. Remember the 3-point victory against STL, NO should have crushed St. Louis! And the list goes on about the Saints when their visiting. In the Super Bowl, their playing at a neutral field, but I think its all about being at home or not. And when they're not at home they, s$%@. Even with a spread of 5.5 as of today, my pick is Peyton to win at least by 7. In fact, I will predict the final score to be: 35-27. Betting only 10% of bankroll in order to enjoy the success of the season regardless of the outcome.

Enjoy the off-season everyone, and if you know someone or someone that knows someone that needs statistical analysis in the sports area, send'em my way. Great season everyone and thank you for all your encouragement, feedback, and contribution.

Sincerely,

Jaime
admin(at)nflpickles.com


Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for SUPER BOWL 44!





















GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SUPER BOWL: NEW ORLEANS - INDIANAPOLIS-5.5-8-2.556%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

23 comments:

David said...

Pride comes before a fall

Jaime said...

I had to look up what that meant. http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Pride+comes+before+a+fall

Maybe next year, go Colts!

Brandon said...

No picks for week 17 & last week! what is up with that! If this guy cared he would post all the picks and not slack off! I don't trust his opinion anymore. Saints won't lose by more than the spread! whats this guy been smokin'

Jaime said...

Mr. Brandon sorry that I've offended you. I do try my best to provide the best picks, for free, all season.

Week 17 is not a smart week to bet. In that case it wasn't laziness, it was a well thought break from spread picks. Last week, well yes, just like the President of the United States takes vacation to golf and hang out with his family, I did the same myself.

I do not expect anyone to trust me, just to follow my track record and judge. Good luck with your Saints pick, not.

Brandon said...

Mr.Sun Tan,
Ok I agree with week 17, but how long really does it take to post the picks...like 10 min? Go Saints! Ps.I except your appology,not

Jaime said...

Read the post. It's really not how long, but having the equipment. If you really wanted those two picks, you should've wired me $300 to the island and I would've made them happen.

Brandon said...

Why would I give you money? Then you would have skipped week 16 and went to the Jersey Shore to meet "The Situation". Fist pump!

jldude said...

keep up the good work. ignore the idiots. thanks for the free picks.

jldude said...

On second thought, hey if you need an off site intern to crunch numbers or research for you or input data, or answer your email, i'd love to apply.

dtBy said...

Grats on a great year. Hopefully next year I'll figure out a better way to follow along from this side of the world.


Also, I always love picking NHL once the NFL is over. But I always go on a huge losing streak just after the trade deadline.. so what do I know.

All the best to you and yours.

Jaime said...

On a side note, what do you think of the new iPad? http://nflpicklesipad.nisurvey.com

Brandon said...

Mr.Sun Tan a.k.a Jaime,
I guess I missed my shot to bet on the Saints. I thought I would wait it out closer to the Super Bowl in a effort to get an even better favored spread on the Saits!However, now more people are going Saints and dropping the line. Oh well, I will make my decision on Saturday, whether to go with you or go on my gut feeling and mass knowledge of football. Ps. I am starting my own website pretty soon and will post all the picks even if I go on vacation j/k
Lets make ammends, I like your site and appreciate you offering them for free. Thank You!!!!!
Ps. If you answer me back,lol.
By how much would you take the Colts, -4 is what I can get..I think it my be to low. Also, I know you dont do the over/under but, would you take the over by chance. Its the last game lets gamble! haha Thanks, Brandon aka Mr.Idiot lot

Jaime said...

The fact that the line is moving towards the Saints is a good sign for wagering on the Colts. I read a journal article once, I'll see if I can find it again, that found that when the line moves in one direction (Saints), 54% of the time the team in the opposite direction (Colts) covers the spread. It even showed percentages by the amount of points the line moves, but I can't remember the details.

I took the Colts at -5 at a lower wager, and now reinforcing at -4. At the over/under, I have no statistical clue. Gut feeling is over (just because you got the best two offenses playing each other).

stephen said...

thanks for a great year! looking forward to next season.

Jaime said...

Thanks a lot stephen.

Tony Dungy is with me :) http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4889508

Brandon said...

I was right, Go Saints! Good thing my money was on them. +$100 !!! Manning choked! Reminded me of Tony Romo lol

Jaime said...

Great game. As I told a friend of mine who was watching the game with me, "you can't judge the system based on one game".

Anthony said...

Jaime,

Can you explain why your model estimated the colts by 8 points? What drives this estimate b/c the Saints were statistically better in many categories.

Great Season! Looking forward to next year.

Jaime said...

NFL offensive and defensive stats are considered as well as historical scores. I will revise this game and others during the off-season, tweak it, back-test it, and hopefully improve it.

Thanks for following during the year.

Mike d. said...

Great season Jaime. Keep up the great work. I really like what you're doing here. My only objection was to the Superbowl pick.

Here's where I think you went wrong:

"Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever bet against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph."

While yes, Manning has won a championship (only one), he's also shown (more often than not) that he's a playoff choker. He has been to the playoffs 9 times. 5 of those times he failed to register a single win. His overall playoff record is 9-9 (4 wins came during the Superbowl winning run). His QB rating in the playoffs is almost a full 10 points lower than in the regular season, and his TD:INT ratio is much higher in the playoffs than the regular season.

People got caught up in the Manning hype spewed by the media over the past two weeks. Yes Manning is a great QB, maybe the best to ever play the game. But only in the regular season. His playoff statistics and track record is very mediocre for such an elite QB. So while the media and everyone hyped him up as invincible, the statistics showed something much different.

Luckily I went against the grain on this bet (and actually played two alternate spreads of NO -3.5 and NO -10.5) and had a nice little payout to end the season.

Jaime said...

I'm working on a creating a post to recap of the season: prediction summaries, lessons learned, and possible modifications for next year. I'll ask for your feedback as well.

Many thanks for following and all the great comments. You've made this the best year NFLpickles has had.

Best,

Jaime

tictac said...

Hello all

Just thought you guys might like this sports chat forum also:

http://www.wetalksports.com

If you like to talk about what games you're betting and why you like them to get second opinions. Some very good info and pretty cool people!

They also have money contests that are free to join.

Just wanted to share.. All the best

DDW said...

Hey Jaime,

Just wanted to say hi and that i'm getting excited for this year's season. I hope you will still have time to update the site this year.

DDW.