2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $114.29
Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $66.67
Pick 3: San Francisco -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone! For those of you worried that you might have one eye on the turkey and the other on the Packers or Cowboys game, worry no more. Those games are not included in this week's picks; although the Cowboys will crush the Raiders at home, the Packers will breeze through Detroit, and Denver beats the Giants.

This week I have 3 NFL locks of the week, yeah right. Have you heard people say that? Who can believe them? In any case, lets deep dive into the 3 NFL spread picks of the week:

IND @ HOU $120 (105) - A 10-0 team playing a 5-5 and the spread is 3, how come? Indi on average scores 4 more points and allows 5 less points than Houston. Indi is 5-0 ATS on the road in the last 5 games, tells me nothing though, but interesting. Consensus favors Indi heavily, which actually worries me. Indi beat Houston by 3 at home in week 9 and since then has won two games by less than 2 points each. This I like, low confidence that they can build a marginal lead.

CHI @ MIN $120 - Chicago is a disaster, but there are still hopes (at least here in Chicago) that they can turn around this team this year, not a chance. The Vikings are very impressive; scoring 10 points more and allowing 3 points less than the Bears. Until the Bears fix their offensive line, rushing game, coaching strategies, wide receivers, and overall confidence, I will confidently go with my model's prediction and bet against my beloved Bears.

JAC @ SF $80 - San Francisco has the best record against the spread so far this year, according to my ATS Standings. Jacksonville has had 3 straight wins (KC, NYJ, BUF). They run and pass the ball with more yardage than the 49ers. QB Mike Smith increased his rating last week with a good second half against the Packers. Least confident of the 3 games, lower wager.


Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON35.02.063%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA-10.5-13.5-3.058%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-3-8.6-5.657%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS-13.5-15.13.456%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-13.5-10.13.453%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE-2.5-5.8-3.353%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA-9-11.0-2.053%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI-14-17.9-3.952%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA-12-16.4-4.452%
CAROLINA @ NY JETS-3-3.2-0.250%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE-10.61.650%
NY GIANTS @ DENVER6.5-5.1-11.650%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO34.01.050%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT1018.88.848%
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS-3-2.01.047%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS31.5-1.542%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

Pick 1: San Diego -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $54.55
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $54.55
Pick 3: Arizona -9 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$60
Pick 4: New Orleans -11 correct NFL point spread pick + $54.55

Just like the stock market, bankroll and ATS percentage is expected to oscillate, regardless of your handicapper or strategy. We try our best here to provide you not only with above average picks, but a betting strategy to come out winning at the end of the season. I cannot stress enough the importance of managing your bankroll. As it decreases, so do your bets and vice-versa. If our expected ATS percentage is 58-60%, then by the end of the year you will bank.

Again, this week we'll risk 20% of bankroll. All games equals, means we're betting ~$60/game.

Now, to this week's games. Again we have strong teams playing weaker teams and the spreads to these games range from 9 to 11. We have ARI @ STL, NO @ TB, PIT @ KC, WAS @ DAL, CIN @ KC. New Orleans has lost against the spread in the last two weeks and although I believe they'll rebound this week, the model didn't show much confidence. KC is a disaster and one might be tempted to be all over this game, but in my estimate's opinion, it is "priced right". Dallas might fall a bit short of 11 points according to estimates. Although at they're the only 'strong' team on this list playing at home and Washington showing life only last week, it is a toss up. For Cinci, I've decided to stay away and see how the Bengals play without Cedric Benson.

ARI @ STL $60 - Bulger played well against New Orleans mistake driven game last week. Steven Jackson is running 101 yards per game, with only two TDs. Meaning, the Rams can't score and boy can the cardinals build a lead fast with their passing game.

SD @ DEN $60 -Great divisional game! Question for you: how many points did the spread shift to account for Orton's injury? My guess is about 3 points. Last week's lost against Washington didn't help either. Momentum is on the Chargers with wins against the Eagles and Giants in the last two games. The Denver defense that allowed 6 pts per game in the first 3 games has allowed 28 pts per game in the last 3, what happened? More 3rd down conversions, rushing yards sky-rocketed, and many other reasons. Ask Mike Nolan, my guess it continues this week.

SF @ GB $60 - Great game for Green Bay last week, but that does not sum up their season. This spread seems inflated by recency bias. The 49ers are at the top of the ATS Standings. Although they won last week against the Bears, their offense was not impressive at all. 4 INT and the game came down to the last play, an interception.

NO @ TB $60 - Sharper and Greer could return for this week's game with Tampa Bay. If injuries do not plague the Saints, I don't see them losing their strong lead in the last quarter as they did against the Falcons and Rams.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 11 of 2009.
































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER36362%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY-6.50.77.260%
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND9.512.22.759%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY1118.67.657%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS920.611.657%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON-4.5-9.3-4.854%
MIAMI @ CAROLINA-30.53.554%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS-6.5-2.34.253%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS-11-9.02.053%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND-10.5-9.51.053%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE11.92.951%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY1011.61.650%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE-8.5-6.02.550%
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO34.31.348%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA-11-9.81.247%
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT-3.5-5.41.944%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: New Orleans -13.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$90
Pick 2: Baltimore -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $81.82
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$90

It is time to bounce back from last week's debacle. Lets increase the bankroll by banking on the Tomato Cans of the NFL Theory. The tomato can phrase came from ESPN's Chris Berman, but the theory that the line is unwilling to give very high spreads to struggling teams playing against strong teams is a NFLpickles model discovery. These teams including the Rams, Redskins, Lions, Chiefs, and Browns are probably thinking what Marv Cook said: “We've got to find a way to win. I'm willing to start cheating.”

This week I was all smiles when the model not only predicted the spreads to be well above the line, but the confidence measure (probability that the point spread estimate is in the correct side) was highest for 3 games that will test this theory. Lets look at these 3 NFL games more carefully:

NO @ STL $90 - The best team in the league against possibly the worst team in the league and the spread is 13.5 or 14? The estimate is 36, might be a statistical aberration, but this price is not right. The Saints #1 in points per game with 37.9 and the Rams last with 9.6. I think NO's last two "weak" games has hurt people's confidence in the team, i.e. recency bias.

BAL @ CLE $90 - Baltimore has not been able to finish games against tough opponents. This 1-4 record in the last 5 games has brought this spread down much lower than it should be. Are we going to see a 34-3 blowout as their last encounter? Probably not. But whether Cleveland decides to change their QB or not, Baltimore will win by at least two TDs.

DEN @ WAS $90 - Am a reading the spread correctly or did someone forget to add a 1 in front? The Kyle that played in Chicago came out yesterday and threw 3 INT. This was bound to happen, but not against the Redskins. The Denver defense, 3rd in the NFL in points allowed, plays a big role on Sunday and shuts down the Redskins.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2009.
























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS13.536.022.566%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND10.515.55.064%
DENVER @ WASHINGTON3.511.27.759%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-73.310.355%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS-7-1.06.054%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS-3-1.61.453%
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI-10-8.21.853%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO-3-6.5-3.551%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA-16.5-19.1-2.650%
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE-6.5-0.9-7.450%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN DIEGO-2.512.615.150%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY310.07.048%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA-9-23.0-14.044%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA1.57.56.043%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND-1.5-3-1.543%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

Pick 1: San Francisco -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$85
Pick 2: Green Bay -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$85
Pick 3: NY Giants -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$85
Pick 4: Baltimore -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$85

As we enter the second half of the NFL season, we understand that there will be good days and bad. There are many factors that are unaccounted for by statistical models, hence the concept of variability and confidence. The goal is to create a winning strategy using Statistics as a guide and Discipline as the driver. Although I would like to maximize the ATS success percentage (currently at 70.4%) for the year, the main goal of this blog is to increase the growth percentage (currently at 61.3%), that is the the real key performance indicator to measure success.

Thank you for the great feedback you've given so far, we've incorporated at least one new thing, instructions on reading the table below. Thanks again. If you haven't yet, please complete these few questions so we can keep improving NFLpickles.

Going all even this week in terms of bankroll used per game. No underdogs this week. Sorry for the short descriptions, need to "get back to work".

TEN @ SF $85 - Almost bailed out since because of Vince Young. I should've bailed out of this game last week. Estimate is above and beyond what Young can do. 49ers by 10.

GB @ TB $85 - The NFL statistical model backing up the tomato cans of the NFL theory. GB by 2 TDs.

SD @ NYG $85 - New York underrated because of its 3 game losing streak.

BAL @ CIN $85 - Too much D by the Ravens.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2009.









































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO-4-15.8-11.867%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY1015.15.164%
SAN DIEGO @ NY GIANTS-5-7.9-2.963%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI35.22.259%
DETROIT @ SEATTLE-10-11.4-1.453%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND-11-12.2-1.253%
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE-6.5-9.4-2.952%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER3-7.1-10.151%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS-9-9.2-0.250%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS-13.5-121.550%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA-10-12.2-2.248%
ARIZONA @ CHICAGO-36.99.946%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA-3-2.11.145%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Visitor Feedback Needed

Hello everyone,

We just lost our streak of 6 winning weeks in a row due to a series stupid plays the Saints did last night. I don't want to get into discussing that game, it makes me extremely mad.

Anyways, we would like to get your feedback regarding this site. The following short (less than 1 minute) survey will be used to improve NFLpickles. Your feedback is very important to us.

Thank you in advance,

Jaime

ACCESS THE SURVEY HERE: http://nflpickles.nisurvey.com