### 2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

Pick 1: San Francisco -4

Pick 2: Green Bay -10

Pick 3: NY Giants -5

Pick 4: Baltimore -3

As we enter the second half of the NFL season, we understand that there will be good days and bad. There are many factors that are unaccounted for by statistical models, hence the concept of variability and confidence. The goal is to create a winning strategy using Statistics as a guide and Discipline as the driver. Although I would like to maximize the ATS success percentage (currently at 70.4%) for the year, the main goal of this blog is to increase the growth percentage (currently at 61.3%), that is the the real key performance indicator to measure success.

Thank you for the great feedback you've given so far, we've incorporated at least one new thing, instructions on reading the table below. Thanks again. If you haven't yet, please complete these few questions so we can keep improving NFLpickles.

Going all even this week in terms of bankroll used per game. No underdogs this week. Sorry for the short descriptions, need to "get back to work".

TEN @ SF $85 - Almost bailed out since because of Vince Young. I should've bailed out of this game last week. Estimate is above and beyond what Young can do. 49ers by 10.

GB @ TB $85 - The NFL statistical model backing up the tomato cans of the NFL theory. GB by 2 TDs.

SD @ NYG $85 - New York underrated because of its 3 game losing streak.

BAL @ CIN $85 - Too much D by the Ravens.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2009.

How to read the table:

**-$85**Pick 2: Green Bay -10

**-$85**Pick 3: NY Giants -5

**-$85**Pick 4: Baltimore -3

**-$85**As we enter the second half of the NFL season, we understand that there will be good days and bad. There are many factors that are unaccounted for by statistical models, hence the concept of variability and confidence. The goal is to create a winning strategy using Statistics as a guide and Discipline as the driver. Although I would like to maximize the ATS success percentage (currently at 70.4%) for the year, the main goal of this blog is to increase the growth percentage (currently at 61.3%), that is the the real key performance indicator to measure success.

Thank you for the great feedback you've given so far, we've incorporated at least one new thing, instructions on reading the table below. Thanks again. If you haven't yet, please complete these few questions so we can keep improving NFLpickles.

Going all even this week in terms of bankroll used per game. No underdogs this week. Sorry for the short descriptions, need to "get back to work".

TEN @ SF $85 - Almost bailed out since because of Vince Young. I should've bailed out of this game last week. Estimate is above and beyond what Young can do. 49ers by 10.

GB @ TB $85 - The NFL statistical model backing up the tomato cans of the NFL theory. GB by 2 TDs.

SD @ NYG $85 - New York underrated because of its 3 game losing streak.

BAL @ CIN $85 - Too much D by the Ravens.

Without further adieu, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2009.

Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|---|

TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO | -4 | -15.8 | -11.8 | 67% |

GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY | 10 | 15.1 | 5.1 | 64% |

SAN DIEGO @ NY GIANTS | -5 | -7.9 | -2.9 | 63% |

BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI | 3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 59% |

DETROIT @ SEATTLE | -10 | -11.4 | -1.4 | 53% |

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | -11 | -12.2 | -1.2 | 53% |

KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE | -6.5 | -9.4 | -2.9 | 52% |

PITTSBURGH @ DENVER | 3 | -7.1 | -10.1 | 51% |

HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -9 | -9.2 | -0.2 | 50% |

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -13.5 | -12 | 1.5 | 50% |

WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | -10 | -12.2 | -2.2 | 48% |

ARIZONA @ CHICAGO | -3 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 46% |

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | -2.1 | 1.1 | 45% |

How to read the table:

- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

## Comments

Buccaneers +10

Chargers +5

Why? I dunno, my model did terrible last week on getting 3 of all the games correct! Was it a fluke week? Maybe... It is the first year i'm doing this and I need to make some changes, especially some type of strength of schedule stat to weight the predictions a bit. My model would have still did poorly even with the week 8 data entered now, so in a way, that is a good thing since the predictions seem to be stable.

As for your survey, I opened the window and while waiting for it to load i was surfing the web, and then closed the browser. So it says I already took it.

Anyway, good luck this week!

Joel, try to take the survey again, it should work now, although it can be slow.

Texans +9.5

Redskins +10

Buccaneers +10

Chargers +5

Broncos +3

All underdogs for some reason this week.

My overall this year is 58-57-1

My Bets this year is 28-24-1

So not good. I've made some significant changes after week 6 though.

I've been researching neural networks, and testing them in R, I have not considered them yet for using them for predictions as of right now. I have a hard time using something that you have no idea what is going on inside of it.

So might tough it out with what i have this year, cause there is going to be a lot of code cleanup once it is over and I have time haha.

My picks vs yours:

SF -4

GB -10

SD +5

CIN +3

Again I won't bet on a game SD is involved in, but my numbers point to SD covering. I like your pick with BAL -3 better than mine, but again this is what my numbers point to.

Good luck this week!

The games I (not my model) consider most appealing are MIA +11, IND -9, GB -10, and SD +5. I’ll run my model tonight and update my (my model) real picks at that time. I’ll compute BOBB lines tomorrow (Brian publishes his probabilities on Thursdays).

- Happy

I'm a little surprised by the confidence in the Giants pick.

Are they underrated because of their 3 game losing streak to decent opponents or were they overrated because of their 5 game win streak against extremely weak opponents?

I don't really like anything about that game.

To resolve this dissonance, I've decided that I'll make a bet or two based on your picks this week on my way out of town.

So, extra-good luck this week!

In any case, I just booked the 49ers for a small wager. Not for lack of confidence.. I'll just not be here to cash the ticket. Hopefully, my friend taking me to the airport will find something to do with the $210!

Expected return: $210*.67 + (-$110)*.33 - $30 = $75 :)

I get your point, but I think I have the math a little different. Here's what I show for a single event expectation calculator (using MS Excel). Please correct me if I've got this wrong.

Cell A1

w (stands for wager amount)

Cell B1

210

Cell A2

p (stands for probability of winning the wager)

Cell B2

0.67

Cell A3

B (stands for book. Here I'm meaning the wager required to win $100. For example -110 would be 110).

Cell B3

110

Cell A4

e (stands for expectation)

cell B4

=B2*B1*(B3+100)/B3-B1

this evaluates to $58.61

cell A5

t (stands for target expectation)

cell B5

30 (cover the cab fare)

cell A6

tw (target wager, amount you must bet to achieve target expectation)

cell B6

=B5/B4*B1

evaluates to $107.49

I read this as you need to wager $107.49 on a 67% probability even to achieve a $30 positive expecation in a 10% book. You can create this tool yourself, it's fun to play with. Set your probability to 52.38% and you'll see the expectation go to zero (this is the breakeven point for a 10% book).

67% chance he collects a ticket worth $210. 33% chance he doesn't cash the ticket and misses out on the $30 I would have given him for the ride to the airport.

E = .67*210 + .33*(-30) = 140.70 - 9.90 = 130.80

On the other hand, from MY perspective I have a 0% chance of cashing the ticket and a 100% chance of losing the $110 I paid for it.

E = 0*210 + 1.0*(-110) = 0 - 110 = -110

My bets this week are:

SD +4.5 (I wish I could've got +5) for three units

Under 43 in the Det vs SEA for three units

WAS +10 vs Atlanta for one bet unit

JAC -6.5 vs KC for one bet unit

Over 47 in the NYG vs SD for one bet unit

- Happy

Id pick the Packers -10.5

the Seahawks -10.5

Philadelphia -3.5

Pittsburgh -3.5

Those are the 4 locks of the week but I provide analysis on all games

ive picked tennessee san fran as my upset of the week on my daily blog where I am 64-51-1... thats money in the bank folks!!

Way to stick to your guns though.

Nice week Joel.

This week for you Jamie was like last week few weeks for myself, and it just plain old sucks. However, if this were easy, then there would be no bookies right?

1. My suspicions about the Giants seem to be correct. They are overrated based on their 5-0 start to junk teams. They haven't beat a half decent team all year.

2. Green Bay is terrible. Well their O-Line and Defence are at least. 5 sacks to the worst pass rushing team in the NFL?

3. Cincy is the real deal. What's up with former Bears RBs tearing it up after leaving Chicago?

Let's hope for a bounce back week next week.

1. A large spread against the Dolphins = money in the bank.

Good running game and great defense yields a close game almost every time.

2. GB will lose to any team with a pass rush. (i.e. next week to the cowboys)

3. Don't bet against any team with a new starting qb for the week no matter how terrible you think he is

(vinnie young, derek anderson, kevin kolb, dante culpeppter)

4. Titans will upset some decent teams in the upcoming weeks.(texans, arizona, colts)

Saints over Rams (-14)

Assuming the Saints can score some points early it'll take the it'll take Steven Jackson out of the game

Denver over Washington (-4.5)

I don't think Portis will play, which means absolutely no running game. Denver will eat Campbell.

Bengals over Steelers (+6.5) possibly buy half a point

Cedric Benson looks unstoppable rushing over 100 yds against very good defenses.

Eagles over Chargers

I think there will be a favorable line (+3). And assuming westbrook is back.

Cowboys over GB (+1)?

Pass rush.

Keep up the good work Jaime!