Visitor Feedback Needed

Hello everyone,

We just lost our streak of 6 winning weeks in a row due to a series stupid plays the Saints did last night. I don't want to get into discussing that game, it makes me extremely mad.

Anyways, we would like to get your feedback regarding this site. The following short (less than 1 minute) survey will be used to improve NFLpickles. Your feedback is very important to us.

Thank you in advance,




HappyBreathNet said...

Yeah, pretty frustrating (the end of the Saints game). I didn't have it as a pick, but I did have a 100 unit (smallest) bet on NO in my Covers League Champions Contest. Not as frustrating as Pittsburgh's second interception returned for touchdown in Week 7, but still pretty frustrating.

- Happy

HappyBreathNet said...

The role that luck plays in determining the outcome of NFL games, particularly against the spread, cannot be overstated. Las night’s New Orleans game is one example, the week one game between Denver and Cincinnati is even more compelling. When one play can swing 14 points in one direction or the other, it’s no small wonder that the standard deviation of actual outcomes relative to the spread is between 12 – 14 points.

I’m sure you would have enjoyed a seventh straight winning week (who wouldn’t have), but at least we know you’re human. Even with a staggeringly positive expectation (most of your stated bets have a confidence between 56% - 65%) the standard deviation insists that you have some losing or breakeven weeks.

By the way, I never clarified with you what your confidence means. If you have a confidence of 56%, is that your confidence in your calculated spread (from your table) or your confidence in beating the Vegas Line?


- Happy

Jaime said...

HappyBreathNet, you hit right on target. We can't expect to win every week, but at least do our best to come out with a big positive gain at the end of the year.

The confidence is the expected probability of beating the spread. That is, the probability that the estimate is in the correct side of the Vegas line.