2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $114.29
Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $66.67
Pick 3: San Francisco -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone! For those of you worried that you might have one eye on the turkey and the other on the Packers or Cowboys game, worry no more. Those games are not included in this week's picks; although the Cowboys will crush the Raiders at home, the Packers will breeze through Detroit, and Denver beats the Giants.

This week I have 3 NFL locks of the week, yeah right. Have you heard people say that? Who can believe them? In any case, lets deep dive into the 3 NFL spread picks of the week:

IND @ HOU $120 (105) - A 10-0 team playing a 5-5 and the spread is 3, how come? Indi on average scores 4 more points and allows 5 less points than Houston. Indi is 5-0 ATS on the road in the last 5 games, tells me nothing though, but interesting. Consensus favors Indi heavily, which actually worries me. Indi beat Houston by 3 at home in week 9 and since then has won two games by less than 2 points each. This I like, low confidence that they can build a marginal lead.

CHI @ MIN $120 - Chicago is a disaster, but there are still hopes (at least here in Chicago) that they can turn around this team this year, not a chance. The Vikings are very impressive; scoring 10 points more and allowing 3 points less than the Bears. Until the Bears fix their offensive line, rushing game, coaching strategies, wide receivers, and overall confidence, I will confidently go with my model's prediction and bet against my beloved Bears.

JAC @ SF $80 - San Francisco has the best record against the spread so far this year, according to my ATS Standings. Jacksonville has had 3 straight wins (KC, NYJ, BUF). They run and pass the ball with more yardage than the 49ers. QB Mike Smith increased his rating last week with a good second half against the Packers. Least confident of the 3 games, lower wager.


Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON35.02.063%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA-10.5-13.5-3.058%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRANCISCO-3-8.6-5.657%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS-13.5-15.13.456%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-13.5-10.13.453%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE-2.5-5.8-3.353%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA-9-11.0-2.053%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI-14-17.9-3.952%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA-12-16.4-4.452%
CAROLINA @ NY JETS-3-3.2-0.250%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE-10.61.650%
NY GIANTS @ DENVER6.5-5.1-11.650%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO34.01.050%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT1018.88.848%
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS-3-2.01.047%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS31.5-1.542%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

HappyBreathNet said...

I'm with you on the Minnesota pick. I have JAC +3 in the SF game though. Really looking forward to the Monday night game though. No pick; my spread agreed Vegas. I have that game 31 - 28 in favor of NO.

Good luck this week!

dtBy said...

First of all, as a native Detroit resident, it's important to note that if it's on Thanksgiving Day, it's the "Lions' Game".. not the "Packers' Game"... don't take that from us, it's all we've got!

I actually ran my model this week. It's hard for me to make adjustments without my continuous source of NFL news, but here's what I've got.

Raiders +13.5
Broncos +6
Titans +3

[Note that unlike any previous weeks, I won't actually be putting my money on these. no sports betting handy and no online accounts just yet.)

Good luck, as always!

siggy said...

Jamie you continue to amaze. Another great week. Keep up the excellent work.