14-1 ATS on Super Bowl Games: THIS is our Official Super Bowl Pick

You read that right. In my 15 years predicting the Super Bowl on nflpickles.com, I have a record of 14-1.

Who didn't I get right? The Saints in 2010. I've bet for and against Brady successfully. I've bet the underdog and the favorite (those are about 50% each in the last 30 bowls).

The reason I believe is that there might be too much non-smart money on the game.

We break it down on my Rokfin channel.

For $9.99, you get to see and profit. Cancel any time. https://rokfin.com/article/8186

NFL Point Spread Pick - AFC Conference Championship

There is just too many stats, trends, and common sense going against this average Bengals team. This one trick pony Burrow-Chase that beat the Chiefs not long ago will not have the same luck against a team with so many weapons and much superior coaching.

First, the revenge angle. This Chiefs team is looking on putting away this team early. They will learn from the mistakes they made on that week and last weekend on the defensive sided. Chase might have a game, but I assure you Andy Reid won't let it be another 3 TD, 266 yd game. The Chiefs did start strong in that game scoring 3 easy TDs against a defense that is below average. But then Chase did the same that Davis did to them last week. Next weekend, Chase will be double teamed so they'll need to find someone else. 

These two teams in my opinion are in two different weight classes. The Chiefs I'm not sure if they didn't want to show up that day on week 17 or they did and got up early but didn't want to continue fighting. During the playoffs they'll fight as you saw last weekend. 

David and Goliath and you know I like betting Goliath. This year, home teams favorites by a TD or more are 43-26 (60%) ATS. Also in Conference Championships, 56% of the time the home team covers, favorites by more than a field goal are 15-8 (65%) ATS, the median final margin is -6 for the home team. 

This late in the playoffs, the heavy favorite usually wins. The big offensive advantage destroys their opponents.

There is a version of this game where the Bengals somehow keep it a one score game. A game where the Chiefs are not looking like themselves and even trail for a bit. Then come back and win or are up by 9 and the Bengals score a field goal but KC ends up with the ball and the game. That's a scary thought with a 7 point spread. Definitely 7.5 is too high and the line already corrected to 7 and at 6.5 it was too low and didn't last there either. I do not see how this line shifts from where it's at, seems to have found a balance point.

Models: They are mixed and not convincingly for KC. Yes, the one I'm posting below is the strongest ensemble and has KC by a lot. But there are some with KC by somewhere between 3 and 4. I'm sticking with the best performing one and the one that aligns with Goliath. 

In summary, don't over think this. KC is gonna win. It's probably a blowout if KC's defense is able to get a turn over or stop a few more third downs. On the other hand, I don't expect the Bengals defense to come even close to stopping the Chiefs.

As I mentioned in the NFC Championship article, a parlay of KC -7 the one I'm backing in NFC looks juicy and very likely. If you're not feeling the blowout, take it straight up or tease. Have fun and let's win some more $ with MyHomie.

The pick: Chiefs -7

To see who I'm backing in the NFC Championship go to my Rokfin channel: https://rokfin.com/article/7848/NFC-Conference-Championship

NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional

Feeling good after hitting all 3 top picks last weekend. Bucs, Chiefs, and Rams all predicted blowouts. Almost hit the honorable mention in the Raiders but whatev they suck. Also, 4 of the 5 quarterbacks getting their first playoff game lost by a lot. The only one who won? Burrow because he was facing a 1st timer in Carr. Carr, Murray, Hurtz, and Mac Jones all had to go home. Enough bragging, it's time to continue this streak and analyze these games: 


The Los Angeles Rams just came out of a huge blowout against the Cardinals and beat these same Bucs in week 3 34-24 and hence we get a 3 point spread. Not even a half point for the Super Bowl champs or the goat. 

Don't get me wrong, these Rams are legit. Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr have powered these passing offense. The offense looked much better at the beginning of the season but dropped to 14th on the back half of the season. Some of it may have to do with Stafford's league leading 17 INT, and some with their struggling running game. The numbers tell us that the Rams are now an average offense that depends much on the passing game.

The stronghold for the Rams is Aaron Donald and the defense. They are strong against both the pass and the rush. They are fired up and can put pressure on Brady, which is his only weakness, pressure. They sacked him 3 times in game 3. But as of late with injuries in the secondary it could be trouble. It wasn't against Kyler Murray but Brady can exploit the newcomers' weaknesses.

The other problem with the Rams is that they struggled to beat good teams, teams in the playoffs. They had a win against the struggling Cardinals and the one win against the Bucs in week 3 and that's it. Then they lost against the 49ers (2), Packers, Titans and beat a bunch of bad teams like the Jaguars, Texans, Lions, and Giants. The Bucs on the other hand went 6-1 against playoff teams including the one loss on week 3. 

The number one offense in the league are the Bucs and by a lot according to DVOA. #1 passing offense and the #4 rushing offense. They rank #2 in first downs and #1 in late downs. Tom Brady led the league in TDs and passing yards with a top 5 rushing attack. This offense is humming even without Godwin or Brown.

The Bucs defense finished top 10 in the league. It started slow, then it got some injuries but it is healthy and much better as of late and especially at home. They struggled on the road all season so the venue change is a positive sign for this D. 

Models: All machine learning models predict Bucs by 7 or close to it. The home team favorite by 3 and a prediction of 7 gives a situational confidence of 56%. Not too high, but it's the playoffs so I prefer to stick with the narrative that all statistical signs point to the Bucs.

Injuries: Fournette and Jones at RB for the Bucs are a question mark, although Vaughn was able to fill in just fine. The worrisome injury are in the Bucs offensive line. RT Tristan Wirfs and C Ryan Jensen are two Pro Bowl linemen that are question marks this weekend but badly needed against the Rams. Watch for their injury updates.

This game for me does boil down to the two QBs. Stafford vs Brady. In that case, I'll take the GOAT.

THE PICK: Bucs -3 

For analysis and picks for the other 3 games visit Rokfin.com/NFLpickles

NFL Point Spread Picks - NFL Wild Card


The Bucs are at it again and after a roller coaster ride, Fournette is back to boost the offense and last week we saw Evans. Lavonte David, JPP, and Shaquil back so the defense is definitely healthier. This defense ended the season ranked #9th and for the most time was never completely healthy and now will benefit greatly against the #3 rush offense of the Eagles.

Here's why I'm backing the Bucs. The Eagles went on a 6-2 run at the end of the season to sneak into the playoffs but who did they beat? Lions, Jets, Giants (2), WFT (with covid). Their competition was terrible but it did hype up the team. Now they are getting over 70% of the money and bettors forget who's on the other side. I think people are also looking at last year's Bucs game vs Washington with a similar spread. The Bucs won of course but didn't cover.

These two teams faced each other in October and although the final score was 28-22, Tampa dominated that game. The first fourteen points for the Eagles were on 50+ yard penalties. The defense was rushing Hurtz but at the same time preventing him to run for big yardage. No Gronk. Again, a much healthier defense now. In this game, the Bucs were 7 point favorites on the road.

This year home favorite over a TD but less than double digits went 11-6 ATS (64.7%). My models don't have the Bucs covering by much more than the spread likely a more fair price for this game is 9.5 or 10 so there's some value at 8.5.

When the Bucs take a double digit lead, the run offense for the Eagles goes away making it very difficult to make a comeback.

The Pick: Bucs -8.5

Check out the rest of the machine learning NFL picks on Rokfin.com.

NFL Point Spread Picks - AFC Wild Card


When these two teams met in November, the final score was 32-13 but it was a 3 point game in the 4th quarter with 5 minutes left. At the end, Chase caught on in the endzone, Carr threw and interception, and Mixon scored to make it a 19 point game from a 3 point one.

Cincinnati benefited from a crappy division and one of the softest schedule by any team. Even with an easy schedule, they had nine one-score games. The are ranked right in the middle overall average team in DVOA both on offense and defensive side. On the defense, their weakness is in the pass as they rank 24th at 11 points below average.

Coincidentally the Raiders also had 9 one score games including the last 4 games of the season which they won. Their offense is ranked similar to the Bengals, but I would argue with Waller healthy they could be ranked slightly better. Derek Carr started the season on a tear but quickly regressed to his mean. The Raiders defensive corp is stronger against the run which will force more times for Borrow to throw. With the snowy weather, Cinci might be thinking of leaning on the run more and play conservatively which will not be the right strategy.

Two average teams that don't have any significant differences in matchups are hard to read and seem like a close game. Looking at the trends, this year home teams favorite by less than a TD are just 33-59 (35.9%) against the spread (ATS).

I'm not excited much about this game as it will come down to the last play. But in these situations of even teams, the price should be 3 or 3.5 for the home team and given it's 5.5, I'm taking the underdog. This is contrary to what my machine learning models say which is Cinci by 7. But the situational confidence is so low it's worth to look twice, handicap and adjust.

THE PICK: Raiders +5.5

All other picks can be found on Rokfin.com/NFLpickles

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Huge money making last week with Kansas City, Indi and Tennessee. Green Bay disappoints but gets the win. This week picks are free, just click. Playoff picks never free, win money together. Week 17 strong teams are getting no respect. Looking closely at who's playing for something and the covid protocols we find 3 opportunities to make money and set us up great for the playoffs.


The half point trap, don't fall for it. The Colts are playing well and with a 9-6, a win could guarantee a playoff spot. The Raiders are coming off a win against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos (and it was only by 4 points). The Colts are ranked 8th overall, 9th on both offense and defense, and 6th in weighted DVOA meaning they're playing at a higher level recently. 

One small caveat to this pick is that TE Darren Waller will likely play this week. It might be interesting when the news is official if bets come on the Raiders side and bring this down to 7 or maybe 6.5. As of now, everyone is betting the Colts so it could move to 8 but at that point it doesn't matter. This year, home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 9-5 ATS.

Keep watching the covid protocols and injuries for this game and hold off to see if we can get a 7 later in the week. Raiders added 6 players on Covid list, 3 of them starting line backers. The Colts added two offensive linemen including Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson. Darius Leonard (linebacker) and Zach Pascal didn't play against the Cardinals and could be back this week. Little worries about the offensive linemen, we'll keep a close eye.


Only one touchdown against the Bengals? Oh yeah maybe because Joe Borrow has now had the best performance ever after torching the Ravens with 525 yards and 4TDs. GTFOH. The Ravens were missing more than half of their team. That's why I like the DVOA that accounts for all this. Same with Dak's performance against Washington, but we'll get to that later. 

The Bengals have been able to keep games close against good teams. Except for the loss against the Browns, most losses have been within 3 points. But this team hasn't seen a decent team since they lost against the Browns 7 weeks ago. They've faced a depleted Ravens team, the Broncos, overrated 49ers, Chargers (lost by 19), Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Ravens again, and the Lions. Now they face the #4 passing offense and will need to put up a bunch of points in order to keep up. 

This is also a great situation for an under rated road team. Road teams favorite by more than 3 but less than 7 have covered 56% in the last 320 games.

Again, watching covid lists closely but we know Kelce could be back. Without him, Pringle was able to catch 6 for 75 yards and two TDs. Edwards-Helaire is out but Darrell Williams did just fine with 11 carries and 55 yards. The Chiefs are playing for the #1 spot in the AFC and won't be putting the brakes just yet.


Last pick is the typical David vs Goliath match up we like. The Super Bowl champs against the Jets with a spread less than 2 TDs. At -14 it's not as juicy, but Tampa rolls here even with all their injuries. We found out they can still run the ball without Furnette. Antonio Brown is a huge target for Brady. Mike Evans hamstring is bad and yesterday was put on the Covid list so unlikely he plays although there's a chance. 

To give you some stats on this David and Goliath story. This year, road teams favorite by more than 10 are 5-2 ATS. Home teams favorite by more than 10 are 13-6 ATS so in total Goliath is 18-8 ATS this year. 

The Jets are the worst team overall according to DVOA and worst in defense. Everyone is betting the Bucs here so this line might move to 14 very quickly. 

That's it. Keeping it simple this week. Three solid teams (chalky bets) that want a better place in the playoffs and want to dominate coming into the playoffs. Let's win some and save for the playoffs and the big game in February.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Posted this on Thursday on my Rokfin channel.

I'm not a big fan of football on Christmas day but my job is to analyze every single game and find opportunities. As we get closer to the playoffs, I start ramping up bets per game and go a full 30% of bank roll each week of the playoffs. For this week, let's dig in to opportunities but first Thursday Night Football.

49ers vs Titans predictions

The current line is 49ers as 3 point road favorites. Looks like AJ Brown is coming from IR and playing for the Titans which will be huge and is probably underrated. Julio Jones practiced on Wednesday but he has not a been factor this year. The 49ers have Mitchell out (RB), a safety Tartt, and LB Al-Shaair. Advantage: Titans.

The 49ers are looking good but also not they have beaten the Falcons, Bengals (barely), Vikings, and Jaguars. They also beat the Rams surprisingly but lost against the Seahawks. They are inflated. The Titans on the other hand deflated for losing against the Patriots and Texans. 

Overall the Tennessee offense is ranked 22nd and has been hurt from Henry's absence. Their passing game is ranked 26th in the league while the 49ers offense is on fire and is ranked top 5 in both rush and defense. That's concerning if you're thinking of betting the Titans. 

The 49ers defense ranks 2nd in rush but 21st in pass while TB is slightly better with a rank of 5th against the pass but 12th against the rush.

My models are split and have low confidence of betting this game as the prediction on either side is close to the spread. There doesn't seem to be an opportunity here. Gun to my head, I buy low sell high. 35% of bets and 53% of the money on the Titans. I like the home team with AJ Brown back and hopefully Julio Jones back to his old self plus Jimmy G throwing a few interceptions.


It's a COVID mess. Hill, Bell, Kelce and others are on the Covid list. They should all be game time decisions. Assuming at least that Kelce and Hill play, this is a buy.

Pittsburgh is trash and it is time they get out of being "in the hunt". Last week they beat a depleted Titans offense while only scoring 19 points. This week they go to Kansas City to play the red hot Chiefs. None of the teams seems to have any significant injuries. Here's why I like the Chiefs:

-7.5 at home is usually a trap. They want you to bet the other side because 91% of the bets are on the Chiefs. Situationally it isn't great as home teams favorite by 7.5 have only covered 41% in the last 70 games.
The teams are trending in opposite directions. Chiefs up, Steelers down. Overall weighted DVOA at 4 for Chiefs vs 25 for the Steelers
One team falls behind, I trust the Chiefs will be able to throw themselves into a comeback. Although Mahomes didn't look for a big part of last week's game and still were able to cover thanks to an awesome performance from Kelce.

A team that still hasn't gotten the respect they deserve. It is not just Jonathan Taylor it's that tought #8 ranked defense that seems to be playing better every game. Assuming Deandre Hopkins will still be out for this game, the Cardinals offense gets a huge blow from this. For the Colts, seems like they are down 3 players due to Covid.

These are two teams that also seem to be heading in different direction and we always take the one with positive momentum. The Colts are 8th overall but 6th if weighted more for recent games according to Football Outsiders. Both teams are 9-5 ATS this year. Situationally, home teams favorites by less than 3 but more than 1 are 44% ATS in last ~300 games. Bet the road team!

Also seems like everyone agrees with my machine learning models as 68% of the bets and 95% of the money is on the Colts so bet it quick before it gets to Colts -3. Oh no, a Christmas game. I won't watch live but will see the money going into the bank.


The models loved the Giants, but they don't know the QB situation they are on. Since Daniel Jones got injured, the Giants have lost 3 and have scored an average of 10 points per game. Now comes a 5th round pick in Fromm to see what he can do against the Eagles who they beat a few weeks back. This is too unpredictable. I'm gonna stay away. 


Every time I like a big underdog like Washington +10, I ask myself if this is getting too cute. The Cowboys did beat them two weeks ago by 7 on the road so 10 at home seems ok right? Although the Cowboys rank #2 overall in DVOA, Dak has not been impressive at all. With one if not the best receiving squad he only ranks 8th in the league. 

Heinekie and others are expected to come back from covid protocols and this divisional rivalry should stay close if not a potential upset. Dallas' weakness is the run so I expect Washington to have a full run game, bring the clock down, bet under?, and keep the game close. 

Situationally it isn't great. Home teams favorite by 10 or more but less than 13 covered 57.4% of the time in the last 148 games. Maybe I am getting cute here. Ok, maybe a sprinkle or a unit but not big. Washington covers, hopefully.


Another opportunity to fade Cam Newton and against the Bucs, let's go! Wait not so quick. Mike Evans, Fournette injured. Godwin out for season. The spread is still 10? Brady will find ways to win as he said. 

Models estimated this at Bucs to win by 13 so not much but a potential blowout. I'm not too worried about Fournette as I know others will be able to fill his role. I'm more worried about Brady throwing pick 6s because receivers can't get open and that's where Evans and Godwin would step in. Good news is that Antonio Brown will be coming back. 


Chargers in a David and Goliath battle here and needing a win to secure a playoff spot while the Texans might be looking into a better draft spot. 


I can't believe the Packers didn't cover last week. They should have learned their lesson at almost losing that game. They come back and beat the crap out of the Browns at home.

Final take: probably a stay away or a half unit to see the Bucs defense come to life against Cam and get them through the hump.


Before they shut down the Bucs offense to zero, did you know the Saints defense is ranked #4 overall and first against the run? Sean Payton always carries a great defense and this year is no different. Imagine what they will do against Tua and the Dolphins #24 offense? You would be buying the Dolphins high since they have won 6 in a row, but the only decent team they beat was the Ravens. The rest was Jets (twice), Giants, Panthers, and Texans. Now they face a tough D, let's see how that goes...Easy money Saints -3.

Statistical model results below:

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Nice week last week going 4 for 5 and adding the Patriots over Twitter on Monday night. Let's keep it rolling this week. The strong beat the weak many times over last week. The one time I went cute with Jacksonville against the Rams was the only loss for the week.

KC was attractive at 9.5 but not as much at 10. Same with the NYG at +10.5 now down to 10 is good but not great. Fading Cam Newton as a 3 point favorite seems like a good idea. 

Sunday Night Football with Aaron Rodgers on Prime Time seems like a no brainer under two TDs favorite. Although the Bears defense is healthier, they are starting Justin Fields who will struggle against an underrated Packers D. 

Monday Night, why is Arizona not at -3? Stafford hasn't been good as of late and the Cardinals are healthy and a win away to clinch the playoffs. The attitude for them in this game is seeing if they can hang with teams like the Rams. Their defense is as good as the Rams so it is disrespectful that they are not a 3 point favorite. 

Other picks and raw results of the machine learning models are posted on my channel on Rokfin

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12 Thanksgiving Day

This week all picks will be posted here as way to appreciate everyone who has ever supported me through this site in the past 15 years. It's been a rollercoaster ride for years, but in the end it's been a good one. Let's gobble up some wins this Thursday and over the weekend:

A whole slew of injuries on both sides are reporting including the two starting QBs. That might be a good thing for Chicago as Andy Dalton came in last week and performed better in two quarters than Fields has in two games. The new Bears WR star Mooney seems like he's a go, but Allen Robinson in questionable. Aside from the injuries:
  • Both offenses are horrible. The Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA (30th in passing DVOA) and the Lions ranking 30th (32nd in passing)
  • On the other side of the ball, the Bears rank 16th in the league in DVOA. That's not great, but it's still far better than a Lions unit that ranks 28th
  • The DVOA variance for Detroit is one of the lowest, meaning they have been consistently bad
  • The models are split for this one but the better ones are saying Bears by a TD with a percent confidence of 55%
  • Currently 53% of the bets and 64% of the money is going to Detroit but that's when it was at +3.5. That key number is now down to 3.
  • Lots of talk of Nagy getting fired. Not sure which way this goes, but players' jobs on the line as well meaning they will play. 
  • Road teams with small spreads are covering a lot more this year (and last year). When in doubt, go with the road favorite under a field goal
Pick: Chicago -3

Everyone is focused on Dallas going 1-9 ATS in the last 10 Thanksgiving days. These seem like independent events with a whole new talented team this year. The Cowboys fell against a raging and upcoming Kansas City Chiefs last week, that should have been expected that they were going to be out-coached. Now they are catching just a TD against the free falling Raiders. Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb is questionable so their offense won't be looking as dominant if these two again won't play this week.
  • The Dallas defense is ranked #3 against the pass which is ideal against a Raiders offense that can't run the ball and ranks #30th on the ground attack
  • The Raiders' weakness on defense is on the air where they rank #23rd. This could be trouble against an offense that is ranked #7th in the league on the air attack.
  • The spread has gone down to 7 points in some places as more money is getting placed on the Raiders but the totals is still that 58% of the money is on the Cowboys (with 66% of the bets)
  • With a healthy offense, my models estimate a Cowboys win by 17 points well over the 7 or 7.5 point spread. 
  • Although the offense is banged up, the Dallas D is the one who's going to show up and ensure the Cowboys clear a win and cover on Turkey day
Pick: Dallas -7.5

Is the value in the road favorites this Thursday? Is being chalky the right move? This game you should probably stay away the same way you shouldn't have that extra piece of pie. But who are we kidding, you're gonna bet it. Since you are here is our recommendation.

Buffalo has looked like a Super Bowl contender and like a team that doesn't even have what it takes to make the playoffs. New Orleans is still figuring it out their offense, they've lost 3 in a row, and now face a team that is trying to win a division while the Saints chances of beating the Bucs are getting slimmer.
  • Injuries plague the Saints. Especially on the passing front and now they face the #1 passing defense in the league!
  • The Bills have lost 2 of the last 3 and we predicted it last week. Now they are playing for their division against a weak team. This recency bias keeps this spread under a TD. They just need to control Kamara which shouldn't be as much as he'll be the only threat.
  • All my models like the Bills to win by over 10 points...blowout potential
  • The Saints D has allowed over 29 points per game in the last 4 and now face one of the most scoring offenses in the league
Pick: Bills -6 (and over 45)

All chalk on Thursday I know. It is hard to see Buffalo losing this one and falling even lower on the standings. Same for Dallas' Defense against a Raiders team that's falling apart. Chicago vs Detroit is a race to see who is the worst. Tough one, so the Bears D shows up and makes it an interesting game.

NFL Point Sprea Picks - Week 9

Although the chosen games last week went 1-3, the models went 67% across all games. That's good, the math is working. The improvement needed is in finding better ways to identify the winning games. I got a few ideas besides situational confidence that I'm gonna test this week. Let's dig in!

Indianapolis -10

Thursday night football the Colts hosts the Jets who are coming off a huge win last week. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and have arguably the best running back in the league. The #10 overall team against the #28th is a weak vs strong case we always like to be on the strong side. Additionally,

  • Models estimate between 16 and 24 giving the Colts room for a cover.
  • Recency bias, huge, for the Jets
  • Slight QB edge for Carson Wentz who shines against weak teams
  • Big spreads have been covering this year going 9-2 ATS
  • 40% of the bets and 42% of the money on the Colts

Conclusion: Bet the strong avoid the weak

Buffalo -15

Don't over think it. Jacksonville is trash. Buffalo is top. Another weak vs strong case. 

Arizona pick

Kyler Murray is questionable but likely to play Sunday. A game time decision, but this time the betting markets are assuming that he will play. Articles like this one, also point at him playing. The longer week should also help. Remember that last week, Dak Prescott was a "game-time decision" but 3 days before the game the spread had moved to Vikings -3. Assuming he plays, here's the break down:

  • All models are estimating this game at or close to Cardinals by 10! The situational confidence is not as strong, but this week they aren't facing anything close to Aaron Rodgers
  • Their loss last week and 49ers win against the Bears is making this game a pick vs 3 or even 7 points for the Cards
  • Bets and money ~60% going to the Cardinals
  • SF is surprisingly ranked 9th in DVOA against the Cardinals #2, but the 49ers defense which ranks 17th overall and 22th against the pass will be exposed setting up a potential blowout
  • Away teams at a pick are 42-30 ATS since 2010
  • A huge QB advantage for the Cards (if Murray plays)

Conclusion: This line will move a bit once Murray is officially announced the starter, but even a one or two point move won't be enough. All signs point that the Cardinals bounce back from their first loss to win again.

Get the rest of the picks and the machine learning model results on Rokfin.