NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 16

After starting with a solid pick on Thursday night betting the 49ers, Sunday turned out to be a shit show. The Vikings -3.5 or -4 point spread didn't cover, but it almost did after a 33 point deficit. I thought the game was going to be more like the second half, saw some of it, and still think it was the right play. Baltimore on the other hand reminded me how careful one must be on a divisional game with a back up QB. Talking about back up QBs, we got a lot this week.

Most games will be played in freezing temperatures and with winds over 15mph. No snow on the forecast for any that I know of. Let's get started with Thursday Night:

NY JETS -1.5
Yesterday this spread was at 0, the split is favoring the Jags, therefore this qualifies as a reverse line movement. I don't like betting on Zach Wilson, who I guess is the official back up QB. This might come bite me later, but I still think it covers here's why:
  • Jags on the road are 2-22 and a really bad record for Lawrence ATS
  • Quennin Williams and his 11 sacks didn't play last week but is expected to play this week
  • Starter LT for the Jags is out
  • 15mph winds at 20 degrees levels out the Zach Wilson situation, limits the pass game
  • All models with various data sets and levers pointing at the Jets to win by at least 3, at most 8, average of 6.
This game had one of the highest confidence. That means that when the prediction favors a small home team by over 3 points, the system is correct about 65% of the time.

Are we ready to get on the Watson train? Not necessarily, but he showed glimpses of his athletic ability. Browns with good to great receivers in Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku should start getting better at the pass. Better yet...
  • Non-conference road dome dog Saints playing at below freezing temperatures
  • Saints gave up over 200 yds on the ground last week, at 24th DVOA vs the run playing against Hunt & Chubb (8th in DVOA)
  • Cleveland ranks 10 spots higher in DVOA than the Saints and at home they're favorites by 2.5? Doesn't make sense.
I got 3 other solid picks this here:

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 15

As you've been noticing, there is a pattern to the thumbnail of every one of my articles. This week is no different. Put a comment below describing the trend.

Before we get to the 3-game parlay we're gonna hit this week, let's talk a bit about last week. Nailed the Jets +9.5, 49ers by a mile, and the Bengals. Two of those teams are getting in shape for a Super Bowl run. The other was simply too many points on a divisional game. Seattle disappointed, Geno regressing, and their defense is headed the wrong direction.

This week, I don't want any part of the Bengals/Bucs game because although the Bucs look horrible, they still have a chance at the playoffs. Models say Tennessee but the Chargers have way too many good players on the field now. Carolina is unpredictable and idk if it's Trubisky for the Steelers. Arizona/Denver has two back up QBs. Models have the Eagles, but Fields is unpredictable and could crank up the score. Giants should cover but I like Heineke's spirit and energy. He covers and they've won 7 of the last 8. Ok, well enough of the games I don't like.

Minnesota -4
We've been on the other side just waiting for the Vikings to be exposed. We've talked about their DVOA ranking being near 20th but they're 10-3. The Lions last week uncovered it for everyone. But now they face Matt Ryan and the Colts and I love fading Matt Ryan.
  • Colts are a non-conference dog with a 4-8 record that has no business showing up for this game.
  • The Colts offense is ranked dead last and 12 percentage points from the 30th ranked in DVOA. We prefer the side with the better offense.
  • The Vikings clinch the division with a win. Motivated!
  • The Vikings have LT Christian Darrisaw back, their center, and potentially a safety.
Two more solid picks, exclusively on my Rokfin channel.

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 14

Admittedly, last week was horrible. Even the past few weeks have been disappointing. After a 3-0 ATS week, we went 2-2, 3-2, and 1-2 last week. We stay focus, research player injuries, adjust to playoff contention, and provide you the goods for you to make wise decisions.

Dang, only a half point better at home for Seattle against Sam Darnold. This spread is low because yes the Seahawks have disappointed by having lost ATS the last 3 after covering 4 in a row. The Panthers on the other hand have covered the last 3 weeks. This is the high-level bias bringing this spread to what it is vs 6 to 7 points.
- Seattle is in second place and this is the easiest game for their schedule. A must win to stay in the playoff race. They want it more.
- With good confidence, the models predict the Seahawks to cover this and win by at least a TD.
- Sam Darnold on the road is 7-18 SU and ATS.
- The only worry is Carolina's running game against a bottom half rush D.
- Bottom line: similarly ranked Ds, Seahawks with a huge passing game that can score quick.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming from a miracle win against a lousy Colts team. You were able to see the difference in the offensive line without Wirth. They have lost 2 pro-bowlers on the o-line and Brady is yelling at the subs bc he's not getting the protection. Now they face the toughest defense in the league which is playing better every day. That's the angle. I know Jimmy is out and we're dealing with a back up QB but his teammates have praised Purdy of his physical talents. The Bucs rush D is nowhere where it used to be. They are still ranked 10th but similar to Baltimore, it's going the wrong direction. Deebo and McCaffrey to have big games. San Francisco wins by 10.

Two more solid picks found here.

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 13

The Jets were money, Giants did a miracle cover, and Detroit we knew that was too many points. Seattle disappointed and Baltimore's offense is not as good as their rankings seem to place them. This week we go back and continue winning with some of these teams which seems like they're still a bit underrated.

Seattle -7
The Rams team is trash. Now Aaron Donald is gonna miss his first game since 2017! No Cooper Kupp + Stafford still in play. Are they just quitting for good draft picks? I think so. Although Seattle lost last week, their offense is still top 5 in the league. The models had Seattle to win by a bit more than a TD, but the Rams are trash and this is gonna be a blowout. Why is the spread going down? This opened close to 10, then at 7.5 yesterday and this morning it is at 7, what a deal!

Two other great opportunities published on my Rokfin channel.