NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 16

After starting with a solid pick on Thursday night betting the 49ers, Sunday turned out to be a shit show. The Vikings -3.5 or -4 point spread didn't cover, but it almost did after a 33 point deficit. I thought the game was going to be more like the second half, saw some of it, and still think it was the right play. Baltimore on the other hand reminded me how careful one must be on a divisional game with a back up QB. Talking about back up QBs, we got a lot this week.

Most games will be played in freezing temperatures and with winds over 15mph. No snow on the forecast for any that I know of. Let's get started with Thursday Night:

NY JETS -1.5
Yesterday this spread was at 0, the split is favoring the Jags, therefore this qualifies as a reverse line movement. I don't like betting on Zach Wilson, who I guess is the official back up QB. This might come bite me later, but I still think it covers here's why:
  • Jags on the road are 2-22 and a really bad record for Lawrence ATS
  • Quennin Williams and his 11 sacks didn't play last week but is expected to play this week
  • Starter LT for the Jags is out
  • 15mph winds at 20 degrees levels out the Zach Wilson situation, limits the pass game
  • All models with various data sets and levers pointing at the Jets to win by at least 3, at most 8, average of 6.
This game had one of the highest confidence. That means that when the prediction favors a small home team by over 3 points, the system is correct about 65% of the time.

Are we ready to get on the Watson train? Not necessarily, but he showed glimpses of his athletic ability. Browns with good to great receivers in Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku should start getting better at the pass. Better yet...
  • Non-conference road dome dog Saints playing at below freezing temperatures
  • Saints gave up over 200 yds on the ground last week, at 24th DVOA vs the run playing against Hunt & Chubb (8th in DVOA)
  • Cleveland ranks 10 spots higher in DVOA than the Saints and at home they're favorites by 2.5? Doesn't make sense.
I got 3 other solid picks this here: