NFL Playoff Picks

What a fun ride it's been this year! You have witnessed a 64% ATS along with a betting strategy that gave you 52% ROI. We're not finished yet, now comes the time where these machine learning models perform best. Historically NFLpickles has performed 67% ATS during the playoffs and 9-1 for the Super Bowl. Any other site says they have been winning all year every year, but we know that's not true. You have seen my picks posted here for free throughout the season and for the last 10 years. Unfortunately, my wife and 4 kids have suffered enough from all the work I've put this year. Help me help you. Here's 5 reasons you shouldn't hesitate to pitch in $99 bucks for winning quantitative picks.

  1. We will win: A record 64% ATS and 52% ROI this year. 
  2. Transparency: My winning picks have been posted here all year.  
  3. Experience: 10 years and counting...
  4. Science: Can you bet big without your quant guy?
  5. Limited Time: Once playoffs start, the selling stops...

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NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: Jacksonville -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: New Orleans -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Bad week last week, probably some could have been avoided. This is still the year of the favorite and I should've tried to bank more on heavy favorites against crappy or teams that have given up. This week we have a bit of that by fading Cleveland and backing Jacksonville (lock of the week) and the Rams. The Saints pick is as well like the other ones pure mathematical but I've been told that my model needs to incorporate the same division factor (usually closer games).

Bankroll will continue to be at 27%. With 4 solid NFL spread picks this week we get about $1100 per game. Let's get rolling!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRAN 4.5 9.20 4.74 64.87
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO -6.5 -15.00 -8.53 60.86
LA RAMS @ TENNESSEE 6.5 18.30 11.83 59.63
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -8.40 -2.87 58.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE -13.5 -18.00 -4.53 59.00
LA CHARGERS @ NY JETS 7.0 5.00 -2.00 55.00
SEATTLE @ DALLAS -5.0 3.20 8.19 52.75
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY -10.0 2.90 12.91 51.00
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -9.5 -11.30 -2.83 50.00
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA -4.0 -3.20 0.20 50.00
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI 5.0 7.60 2.56 50.00
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND -12.0 -18.30 -6.31 48.83
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON 10.0 5.10 -4.89 47.45
DENVER @ WASHINGTON -3.5 -2.70 0.83 NA
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY 3.0 9.00 5.00 NA
OAKLAND @ PHILADELPHIA -9.5 -27.90 -18.41 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Minnesota -10.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: LA Chargers -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Pick 5: Oakland +3 PUSH

Since we started betting the season on week 5, we've had 7 winning weeks, one losing week and two push. Last week I'll admit we got lucky with two overtime TD covers. WCurrently at 67.6% ATS, we are on a roll and there shouldn't be any sign of stopping. We'll keep riding the great teams and fading the horrible ones.

This week we got the Vikings coming off a loss playing a team that seems to have given up. I like the Vikings D at home and the models are predicting a blowout. Next up the LA Chargers going strong to win the division and we'll prove their a better team. I don't really know what happened to KC, but they are terrible and aren't covering lately except last week but it was against an even worse team in the Raiders. Finally, going home dog with the Colts and mostly betting that the Broncos are going to regress to the mean and not do anything remotely close to what they did last week. I was on the fence with going with Arizona again, but I'll go with them after seeing the TNF result. That's it for this week, go get some cash with these games.

Bankroll will go to 27% and as the winnings keep coming in, the amount bet gets bigger and bigger. With these solid NFL picks again this week we get about $1500 per game. Stay thirsty my friends!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -22.00 -11.50 65.83
LA CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY 1.0 9.70 8.7 60.00
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS 2.5 -6.80 -9.35 58.52
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON -4.5 -3.00 1.50 57.56
DALLAS @ OAKLAND 3.0 -1.00 -4.00 56.83
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH 2.5 7.90 5.39 55.56
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -11.5 -16.00 -4.50 53.00
NY JETS @ NEW ORLEANS -15.5 -19.00 -3.50 53.00
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE -2.0 7.00 9.00 51.28
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -6.0 -3.00 3.00 50.14
TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.0 -3.0 -1.00 50.00
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.0 3.00 6.00 50.00
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 6.0 8.00 2.00 49.35
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 7.0 12.00 5.00 48.00
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA -3.0 -11.00 -7.96 NA
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 8.0 28.40 20.41 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Arizona +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Another solid week for all of us! Could've gone perfect if it wasn't for that trash 75yd TD by Tampa when time was running out. Not too worry because I have run the numbers again this week and will be giving you some solid picks. First, give me the home dog Arizona expected to win the game outright. Fade the Browns after a cover, I don't care about Josh Brown he's going to get high before the game. When there's a new QB I usually put the game at the bottom, but McCoy will run all over the Colts. Finally, sell the Chargers high and get the dog although it missed the confidence by a point it will still be worth it.

Slightly increasing the bankroll to 25%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With three solid NFL picks this week we get about $1200 per game. Let the good times roll!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA 3.0 -4.90 -7.92 61.52
GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND 3.0 8.80 5.79 60.87
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO -3.0 -8.60 -5.57 59.29
WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS -6.0 -3.50 2.50 57.62
DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY 1.0 0.80 -0.24 56.33
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA 3.0 6.00 3.00 55.46
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 1.00 7.50 55.71
CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI -6.5 -3.20 3.27 51.22
PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS -2.0 -4.40 -2.42 50.58
SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE -3.0 -2.40 0.60 50.00
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -4.0 -6.00 -2.00 50.00
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 11.5 15.50 3.96 49.86
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA 2.0 5.80 3.84 47.50
NY JETS @ DENVER 1.5 6.20 4.71 47.50
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 5.0 -1.20 -6.17 NA
SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON -3.0 -9.00 -6.00 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.