2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Miami +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $1200 a game for the 2 games (plus a a big parlay) we have going on this week. Good luck to all of us including the chicken making picks on Twitter, hilarious.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 9.5 7.0 -2.5 63.6%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -5.2 -0.7 60.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -5.5 -9.3 -3.8 56.1%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO 6 16.1 10.1 55.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 3.6 -5.9 53.7%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE -3 0.5 3.5 50.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -2 4.2 6.2 51.1%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -5 -3 2 50.0%
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES 6 0.1 -5.9 50.0%
OAKLAND@ DENVER -2 -3.5 -1.5 49.4%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 3.5 6.5 3.0 49.0%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS 3.5 -7.2 -10.7 48.0%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 1.8 5.3 NA
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON -7.5 -3.0 4.5 NA
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA -6.5 -16.8 -10.3 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: Seattle -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Dallas -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Diego -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Kansas City -4 correct NFL point spread pick

We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $400 a game for the 5 games we have going on this week.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE -8 -15.6 -7.6 72.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA 2.5 13.9 11.4 62.5%
DETROIT @ DALLAS -7 -9.1 -2.1 58.7%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND 6.5 11.6 5.1 57.3%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -4 -10.8 -6.8 57.0%
CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON -2 -8.3 -6.3 55.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND -4 -10.1 -6.1 53.5%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -16.5 -12.9 3.6 52.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA 2.5 1.5 -1.0 52.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO -3.5 -7.6 -4.1 51.4%
SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES -3.5 -3.0 0.5 50.4%
WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO 3 -3.0 -6.0 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE 5 11.0 6.0 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -3 -17.3 -14.3 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -7 -15.9 -8.9 49.4%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -4.5 -3.0 1.5 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Kansas City -6
Pick 2: Los Angeles +16
Pick 3: Oakland -3

It's time to win big or go home. Last year we went 3-0 on picks for week 15, and this year things can't get any worse (but like a colleague of mine said, when your losing what do you have to lose?). So we are cranking up the bet to 30% of bankroll. If Julio Jones makes it back that will be $750 per game, if not, it's $1,100 per game. Good luck to all of us. Update: removed Atlanta but added Oakland.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -6 -16.1 -10.1 62.0%
LOS ANGELES @ SEATTLE -16 -13.9 2.1 58.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA -13.5 -17.5 -4.0 58.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ BALTIMORE -6 -2.0 4.0 56.7%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO 3 12.8 9.8 55.2%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 3.5 2.0 -1.5 54.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER 3 6.9 3.9 53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA -2.5 -5.7 -3.2 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ MINNESOTA -4 1.1 5.1 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 7 5 -2.0 51.1%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO -10 -7.3 2.7 50.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -6 -8.5 -2.5 50.7%
MIAMI @ NY JETS 2.5 1.4 -1.1 50.5%
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS -7 -8.0 -1.0 50.0%
DETROIT @ NY GIANTS -4 -5.5 -1.5 49.0%
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -5 -3.0 2.0 48.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Carolina -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New York Jets +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4*: Denver -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Waiting on Sieman's status for Denver's pick, will update later this week. Thank you all for those who keep encouraging me. My patience and trust is at rock bottom.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ CAROLINA -1 -6.5 -5.5 65.0%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS -6 -9.9 -3.9 57.9%
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 5.1 7.6 56.4%
DENVER* @ TENNESSEE 1 7.9 6.9 57.1%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -9 -3.9 5.1 55.5%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -3 -8.3 -5.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO 2.5 -1.9 -4.4 54.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY 3 6.1 3.1 53.1%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS 3.5 3.2 -0.3 52.0%
ARIZONA @ MIAMI -1.5 -0.8 0.7 51.6%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -12.9 -5.9 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 1.5 2.0 50.0%
ATLANTA @ LOS ANGELES 6 11.3 5.3 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 6 5 1.0 49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY -2.5 -7 -4.5 48.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA 1 -3.0 -4.0 46.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: Washington +2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Miami +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Denver -4 correct NFL point spread pick

Another tough week last week. At this point, I've given up on a good record for the regular season but really hoping to turn it around and have a great ending like last year. If you recall, last year the turnaround happened in week 15 to then go 8-2 during the playoffs. Anyways, this week we're going with 3 road teams and a home favorite.

Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $350 bet. Lets turn this around now.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 0.6 3.1 60.4%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -10.8 -5.3 59.8%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -0.4 3.1 58.1%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE 4 7.9 3.9 58.1%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -12.2 -5.7 55.0%
NY GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH -6 -3.0 3.0 54.8%
DALLAS @ MINNESOTA 3.5 4.8 1.3 53.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -5.5 -2.0 51.4%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY -6.5 -12.1 -5.6 51.0%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND -3 -5.2 -2.2 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO -1.5 1.9 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ATLANTA -3.5 -10.3 -9.8 49.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS 1 -1.8 -2.8 49.4%
LOS ANGELES @ NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -12.7 0.8 48.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI 1 -4.4 -5.4 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.