2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11
Pick 1: KC -7 
Pick 2: Dallas -7
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5
At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.
Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Dallas -7
Pick 3: New Orleans +3.5
Pick 4: Los Angeles +2.5
At the top of the list we got two home favorites by 7. Expecting blowouts on both games and will get both games at -7. The NO/CAR is going to be close and NO has a good chance of stealing it from them even though Carolina's D is better than it was when they previously played. Finally the last one is being played in Mexico and so Los Angeles has a much bigger home advantage...lol. Just going with the numbers and avoiding emotions.
Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAMPA BAY @ KANSAS CITY | -7 | -10.3 | -3.3 | 61.9% |
| BALTIMORE @ DALLAS | -7 | -11.4 | -4.4 | 60.7% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA | -3.5 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 58.4% |
| MIAMI @ LOS ANGELES | 2.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 | 58.0% |
| ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA | 1 | -4.2 | -5.2 | 54.3% |
| PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 9 | 5.0 | -4.0 | 53.7% |
| CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS | -7.5 | -4.8 | 2.7 | 50.8% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT | -6.5 | -4.1 | 2.4 | 50.8% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE | -6.5 | -8.0 | -1.5 | 50.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3 | -2.9 | 0.1 | 50.0% |
| GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON | -2.5 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 50.0% |
| OAKLAND - HOUSTON | 6 | 3 | -3.0 | 49.1% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO | 13 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 47.4% |
| BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 46.5% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
49ers (+13)
Eagles (+6.5)
Vikings (-2.5)
Steelers/Browns (Under 46)
I *really* like that under if the forecast for wind continues to top 25mph in Cleveland on Sunday.
Good luck, everyone!