2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Seattle -7
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5

What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.

This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.

Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON	7	13.0	6	61.5%
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND	1.5	4.2	2.7	60.0%
NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-19.1	-12.1	59.0%
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-4.2	-6.7	58.6%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS	-4	-4.9	-0.9	56.3%
ST LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-8.0	-1.0	54.6%
BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3.5	-5.2	-1.7	54.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-7.0	3.0	52.7%
HOUSTON @ DALLAS	-6	-12.1	-6.1	51.4%
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA	-2.5	-4.9	-2.4	50.0%
BUFFALO @ DETROIT	-7	-6.5	0.5	50.0%
ARIZONA @ DENVER	-7.5	-7.3	0.2	50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-9	-7.4	1.6	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE	7	4.4	-2.6	49.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	-2.2	4.3	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Buffalo +3
Pick 2: Carolina +3.5
Pick 3: San Diego -13.5

We were close of pulling a 3-1 but the Eagles cost us great at the end. Carolina was dissapointing, but since this blog is based on data-driven or some call it computerized picks, they are showing again this week and I'm sticking by them. Sorry for the late post, I had a little trouble updating the data yesterday. Some of you have caught on, but to know what's going on with picks you can check out my Twitter account.

This will be the last week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $415 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON	-3	0.9	3.9	62.1%
CAROLINA @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	5.1	8.6	58.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO	-13.5	-21.8	-8.3	57.0%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7.5	-9.8	-2.3	56.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-5	-11.1	-6.1	56.0%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	-3.5	-1.7	1.8	53.6%
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA	3	-0.1	-3.1	52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ PITTSBURGH	-7.5	-2.5	5.0	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS	3	0.4	-2.6	50.0%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND	4	1.2	-2.8	50.0%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI	-4	-7.5	-3.5	50.0%
DETROIT @ NY JETS	2	-0.6	-2.6	49.5%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	1.5	-2.2	-3.7	49.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	-6.7	-10.2	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: San Diego +2.5
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -6.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis -6.5

Not a bad start! Had I played with emotions rather than data, I would have picked my Bears and gone 4-0. Ahh, in hindsight everything seems so easy. This week we have another set of exciting data-driven NFL point spread predictions. I'm liking how the models continue to hate on Jacksonville and give them no chance even at home. Carolina is playing great D and with Newton back I'm surprised they are seen almost as even against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia started slow on MNF but their offense is showing that many players can pick up the team when needed, it was Sproles' turn yesterday. San Diego had a huge upset last week and I see them giving the Bills a hard time going to 3-0.

We continue this week with 12% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $315 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ BUFFALO	-2.5	4.3	6.8	62.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CAROLINA	-3.5	-14.3	-10.8	60.7%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-6.5	-13.1	-6.6	59.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	6.5	9.6	3.1	57.0%
DALLAS @ ST LOUIS	2.5	-2.2	-4.7	56.6%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-6.5	-5.2	1.3	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	2	3.1	1.1	55.1%
DENVER @ SEATTLE	-4.5	-2.8	1.7	55.6%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	-1	0.4	1.4	52.9%
KANSAS CITY @ MIAMI	-5	3.8	8.8	50.0%
OAKLAND @ NEW ENGLAND	-14.5	-15.0	-0.5	50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	3	4.2	1.2	50.0%
TENNESSEE @ CINCINNATI	-7	-8.2	-1.2	49.9%
CHICAGO @ NY JETS	-2.5	-6.1	-3.6	49.7%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.5	-12.5	-3.0	48.9%
HOUSTON @ NY GIANTS	2.5	-3.0	-5.5	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Betting Picks - Week 2

Pick 1: Washington -5.5
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City +13
Pick 4: San Francisco -7

My wife was listening to NFL Radio on SiriusXM on her commute to work. As a psychiatrist, she started analyzing every caller and convinced me that my picks should be very relevant from the beginning of the season. Her argument is that people are very emotional at the beginning of the season because they have high hopes for their teams given the clean slate. She argues that could be a big reason why the first week picks were successful.

My response to that is that given I only analyze team level data, my models have a big assumption(that I have to continuously check and hope you help): team composition/competitiveness is nearly constant in recent games. That means that if for example St Louis has a new QB and not enough data has been gathered with Shaun Hill, then the Rams' computer spread forecasts should be avoided because their skill level is not the same as previous recent games.

We will start tabulating results this week. All are official picks from now on. To be more conservative, we'll start with a smaller bankroll percentage in the first few weeks 12% until week 5 where will step up to 15% and go up to possibly 25% towards the end of the season depending on success rates. Here are week 2 NFL point spread predictions:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ WASHINGTON	-5.5	-9.3	-3.8	63.0%
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS	2.5	5.6	3.1	59.8%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	-13	-9.1	3.9	57.1%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-7	-19.0	-12.0	57.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	-4.5	-1.5	51.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ MINNESOTA	3.5	8.7	5.2	51.1%
DETROIT @ CAROLINA	-2.5	-5.2	-2.7	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY	-6	-5.0	1.0	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	-0.6	1.9	50.0%
DALLAS @ TENNESSEE	-3.5	-2.3	1.2	50.0%
ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI	-5	-10.5	-5.5	49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO	6	5.3	-0.7	49.0%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND	3	-5.4	-8.4	49.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ CLEVELAND	6.5	13.5	7.0	48.3%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	1	-0.2	-1.2	48.3%
NY JETS @ GREEN BAY	-8.5	-3.8	4.7	47.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Cincinnati +1.5
Pick 2: New Orleans -3
Pick 3: Philadelphia -10

Is everyone excited to kick off a new season? I'm extremely excited to continue providing transparent free data-driven NFL point spread picks. The format for this year will be the same as last year. Green picks have expected probability of covering the spread higher than 60 and yellow's threshold is 57.

These are unofficial NFL picks! Just like in my previous years, the picks from week 1 to week 5 are purely informational. My predictive models need at least 4 to 5 weeks of data from this year in order to be reliable. In total, my picks do much better by the end of the season and during the playoffs. I know it's hard to see these picks and not be tempted to use them, but stick with me and we'll get you a large positive ROI. That's the goal!

This year I made a few tweaks to the blog so that's it's easier for you to see historical information. If you scroll down and look on the right hand side, find the LABEL section. Now we can click on any week or year and see my picks for all the years in a given week. For example, how have week 1 picks historically done? You can simply click on Week 1 to see.

I didn't have time to finish a trend report I'm working on. Trying to add a bit more meat to what's already available out there. Honestly, it is very hard to find any "trend" when simply looking at homedogs, team, or any high level stats with a big enough sample. I'm also trying to go back in time for the NFL picks and get a better sense when the NFL picks perform better. Stay tuned.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-1.5	3.2	4.7	61.4%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	3	7.4	4.4	57.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA	-10	-15.4	-5.4	57.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-1	9.5	10.5	56.1%
BUFFALO @ CHICAGO	-6.5	-4.5	2.0	55.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	4.5	3.2	-1.3	54.1%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS	-5	-8.7	-3.7	53.8%
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA	-3	-2.3	0.7	53.8%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT	-5	-4.0	1.0	51.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-6.5	-6.1	0.4	51.5%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE	-6	-13.8	-7.8	51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER	-7.5	-14.3	-6.8	51.1%
WASHINGTON @ HOUSTON	-2.5	-0.9	1.6	50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DALLAS	5	8.0	3.0	50.0%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS	-4	-8.3	-4.3	49.7%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY	-4	-12.0	-8.0	48.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.