2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Cincinnati +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New Orleans -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Is everyone excited to kick off a new season? I'm extremely excited to continue providing transparent free data-driven NFL point spread picks. The format for this year will be the same as last year. Green picks have expected probability of covering the spread higher than 60 and yellow's threshold is 57.

These are unofficial NFL picks! Just like in my previous years, the picks from week 1 to week 5 are purely informational. My predictive models need at least 4 to 5 weeks of data from this year in order to be reliable. In total, my picks do much better by the end of the season and during the playoffs. I know it's hard to see these picks and not be tempted to use them, but stick with me and we'll get you a large positive ROI. That's the goal!

This year I made a few tweaks to the blog so that's it's easier for you to see historical information. If you scroll down and look on the right hand side, find the LABEL section. Now we can click on any week or year and see my picks for all the years in a given week. For example, how have week 1 picks historically done? You can simply click on Week 1 to see.

I didn't have time to finish a trend report I'm working on. Trying to add a bit more meat to what's already available out there. Honestly, it is very hard to find any "trend" when simply looking at homedogs, team, or any high level stats with a big enough sample. I'm also trying to go back in time for the NFL picks and get a better sense when the NFL picks perform better. Stay tuned.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -1.5 3.2 4.7 61.4%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA 3 7.4 4.4 57.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA -10 -15.4 -5.4 57.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY -1 9.5 10.5 56.1%
BUFFALO @ CHICAGO -6.5 -4.5 2.0 55.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 4.5 3.2 -1.3 54.1%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS -5 -8.7 -3.7 53.8%
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA -3 -2.3 0.7 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT -5 -4.0 1.0 51.5%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -6.5 -6.1 0.4 51.5%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -6 -13.8 -7.8 51.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER -7.5 -14.3 -6.8 51.1%
WASHINGTON @ HOUSTON -2.5 -0.9 1.6 50.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DALLAS 5 8.0 3.0 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS -4 -8.3 -4.3 49.7%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -4 -12.0 -8.0 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

Carl Fiorica said...

Is that 10 and 6 this week?

f109ae96-392d-11e4-8414-332513f0d156 said...

Just started following you. Good luck this year. I'll be watching and comparing my picks with your confidence levels.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Thanks for following! How do you generate your picks? Carl, I think that's 11-5, but more importantly it's 2-1 for the actual picks and ones we track on the right hand side of the blog.