NFL Point Spread Picks - Thanksgiving Week

Pick 1: Indianapolis -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -8 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Arizona +3 PUSH

Surprisingly a total 5 picks this week. None of them happening on Thursday so we can all relax and enjoy the time with the family :) I'm more dissapointed in this year's results than anyone else. I still do have hope that they will somehow turn around and that we end up with a good ROI for the year.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 13 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $420 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 13 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 -6.4 -1.9 62.5%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -8 -14.5 -6.5 59.2%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO -2 1.7 3.7 58.5%
ARIZONA @ PHILADELPHIA -3 2.6 5.6 58.2%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -1 2.6 3.6 53.8%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON 1.5 -5.8 -7.3 54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3 -5.9 -2.9 52.6%
ATLANTA @ BUFFALO -3.5 -1.3 2.2 50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA -1 -0.5 0.5 50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY 5 5.1 0.1 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT -6.5 3.8 10.3 49.3%
OAKLAND @ DALLAS -9.5 -8.5 1.0 48.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -9 -19.3 -10.3 47.4%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON 9 7.1 -1.9 47.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE -6 -2.1 3.9 46.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND -6.5 -11.7 -5.2 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12 - 2013

Pick 1: San Francisco -6 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick

All NFL picks this week are visiting team. I'm not too surprised with this week's NFL predictions. Atlanta has been terrible so I expect NO to blow them out. No big injuries that I know of except for Jay Cutler for which I think the Bears are better off anyways so I'm sticking with the prediction model's result.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 12 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $600 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 12 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON 6 13.3 7.3 61.1%
CHICAGO @ ST LOUIS -1 3.5 4.5 59.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA 10 19.0 9.0 59.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ ARIZONA -1.5 7.4 8.9 57.7%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND 3 8.3 5.3 55.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE -4 -7.4 -3.4 51.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -2.3 0.2 51.2%
TENNESSEE @ OAKLAND -1 -10.4 -9.4 50.0%
CAROLINA @ MIAMI 4.5 0.5 -4.0 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -1.5 -9.6 -8.1 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -5 -10.6 -5.6 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY -5.5 -8.7 -2.2 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT -8.5 -10.9 -2.4 49.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -10 -3.7 -3.7 48.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11 - 2013

Pick 1: NY Jets +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Miami +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tampa Bay +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Nice recovery last week, lets keep it up. Not many comments for this week as I'm traveling for work. Not really enamored by the picks this week except for Detroit because most teams are failing. Since I stay away from emotions and personal bias, I'm keeping them. Interesting if Miami bounces back given they've been distracted by other things.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 11 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $450 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 11 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY JETS @ BUFFALO -1 3.4 4.4 63.8%
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI 2.5 -1.1 -3.6 61.2%
DETROIT @ PITTSBURGH 2.5 6.6 4.1 59.3%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY 1.5 -4.3 -5.8 58.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ CAROLINA -1.5 -11.1 -9.6 54.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 3 8.4 5.4 52.1%
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON -7 -14.2 -7.2 51.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 3.6 7.1 51.0%
BALTIMORE @ CHICAGO -3 0.4 3.4 50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER -7.5 -10.1 -2.6 50.0%
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE -13 -13.4 -0.4 50.0%
ARIZONA @ JACKSONVILLE 7 18.4 11.4 49.5%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 4.6 8.1 48.6%
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -6 -2.9 3.1 47.4%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS -6.5 13.0 19.5 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Minnesota +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Seattle -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Not many handicappers tell it like it is. Although I don't consider myself a handicapper, I essentially do what they do, make NFL picks against the spread. You read it in newsletters and on their websites, "60% ATS every year". We all know what the trick is. Provide 3 variations of the same picks and by pure chance, one will have higher than 60% success. Not here. This started as my own personal notebook on tabulating pick performance and although it's gotten a bit more serious throughout the years, one thing has stayed the same: true pick performance data. I promised transparency from the beginning, and unlike the government, I've kept my promise since then. Ok, enough about how bad the picks are doing this year. Still early and I'm always more optimistic on the last weeks of the season. So without further babbling, here are our NFL picks against the spread for week 10.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 10 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $515 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 10 of 2013.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE 2 -4.3 -6.3 62.5%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA 2.5 -1.6 -4.1 61.2%
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA 6.5 14.9 8.4 58.2%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS -7 -5.2 1.8 53.2%
BUFFALO @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 -5.1 -1.6 50.7%
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA -2.5 2.8 5.3 50.5%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO 2.5 -0.7 -3.2 50.0%
MIAMI @ TAMPA BAY 3 5.8 2.8 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY -1.5 -10.0 -8.5 50.0%
OAKLAND @ NY GIANTS -7 -4.0 -3.0 49.8%
CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 -1.5 5.0 49.1%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO 7 13.5 6.5 49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -11.5 -7.0 4.5 48.2%
ST LOUIS @ INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -13.1 -3.6 48.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.