Week 13 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: NY Jets -4.5
Pick 2: Houston -5.5
Pick 3: San Diego +1.5
Pick 4: Cleveland PK
Pick 5: Carolina -3

Five picks and teams who should blowout their competition but yet the spread is very tight. Bummer last week but saved from doom by a last minute Baltimore win. Hoping to go back to 60% with these NFL picks.

We continue week 13 at 18% of bankroll which decreased this week because of last week's loss; now to $215 a game

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ARIZONA @ NY JETS	-4.5	-7	-2.5	62.5%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	5.5	12.0	6.5	60.1%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO	1.5	-3	-4.5	58.4%
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND	0	3	3	58.3%
CAROLINA @ KANSAS CITY	3	7.3	4.3	58.3%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	2.5	-1.3	-3.8	56.0%
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER	-7	-5.0	2.0	55.8%
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO	-6	-4.8	1.2	55.8%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DETROIT	-4.5	-9.4	-4.9	53.8%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-9	-14.1	-5.1	51.6%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO	-4	-2.6	1.4	50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	-3.5	-0.5	3.0	50.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	-9	-6.9	2.1	50.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	7	12.2	5.2	49.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	7.5	8.1	0.6	48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	OFF	-7.1

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 12 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Atlanta -1 PUSH
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5
Pick 3: New Orleans +2.5
Pick 4: Baltimore -1

Unfortunately, none of the Thanksgiving day games were picked through our computerized NFL pick predictor. There are a lot of homedogs this week (KC at +10.5), but we are only betting on one, New Orleans. I have not much else to say than to wish you all good luck and a Happy Thanksgiving week.
We continue this week at 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $280 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	1	2.7	1.7	63.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-2.5	-7.8	-5.3	62.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS	2.5	-2.2	-4.7	59.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO	1	3.5	2.5	58.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	3	-0.1	-3.1	56.0%
OAKLAND @ CINCINNATI	-8	-8.0	0.0	55.2%
SEATTLE @ MIAMI	3	1.5	-1.5	52.6%
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	3.2	6.2	52.5%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	10.5	12.0	1.5	50.0%
HOUSTON @ DETROIT	3	5.8	2.8	50.0%
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-0.4	2.1	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-3.5	-3.6	-0.1	49.9%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	4.6	7.1	49.8%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	1.5	2.2	0.7	48.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	6.5	3.7	-2.8	47.6%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	NA	-7.1

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 11 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3.5
Pick 2: New Orleans -4.5
Pick 3: Green Bay -3.5

Rough week last week but at least we're still above water. Hoping for a 3-0 this week and I'm liking what came out of these computerized picks this week. Three undervalue visiting teams. All having good momentum going and coming out of great wins.

We continue this week at 18% of bankroll. For 3 games this week, it gives us a total of $320 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	3.1	6.6	62.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ OAKLAND	4.5	9.4	4.9	56.5%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	3.5	6.7	3.2	56.5%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-7.5	-4.8	2.7	55.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	-3	-4.5	-1.5	52.7%
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS	-7.5	-9.7	-2.2	50.9%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-5	-4.0	1.0	50.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-16	-18.9	-2.9	50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	-1.5	3.2	4.7	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	6.4	2.9	49.8%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA	-10	-9.1	0.9	49.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH	-13	-12.7	0.3	49.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-18.4	-9.4	48.7%
NY JETS @ ST LOUIS	-3	5.4	8.4	48.4%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	1.5	-2.1	-3.6	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 10 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: San Diego +3
Pick 2: Carolina +4
Pick 3: Baltimore -7.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -11.5

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced this is a long-tail play. We've had 3 successful years, a break-even, and a big loss. That makes our record at 3-1-1. There will be years where it will fail. We only hope for continued success this year and the ones to come.

This week we bet two (heavy) favorites and two underdog, one of them at home. I like the big favorites. These are games where the system is trying to predict a big blowout. Although last week we were on the wrong side of the Bears blowout. 

As we continue the success and the season progresses, as always we increase risk. Now we move to 18% of bankroll. For 4 games this week, it gives us a total of $265 per week.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ TAMPA BAY	-3	1	4	60.0%
DENVER @ CAROLINA	4	-1	-5	59.2%
OAKLAND @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-11.1	-3.6	59.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-11.5	-16.6	-5.1	58.3%
NY GIANTS @ CINCINNATI	4	7	3	57.6%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-1	1	2.0	56.0%
HOUSTON @ CHICAGO	-1.5	-0.9	0.6	56.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-11	-17.9	-6.9	51.6%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI	-6	-9.3	-3.3	51.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH	-12.5	-14.1	-1.6	50.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	2.5	-3.5	-6.0	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	3	-2.4	-5.4	49.9.3%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	2	4	2	49.7%
NY JETS @ SEATTLE	-6.5	-1.6	4.9	49.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 9 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -3
Pick 2: Baltimore -3.5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5

Statfox, the main site where I get most of my stats, has been down this week. I think it is due to hurricane Sandy but I'm not sure nor have they said anything on Twitter.

I don't buy the streaks that handicappers come up with. It is pure coincidence. For example, a basic one like homedogs are 61% this year or more complex ones like teams with less than 7 turnovers, 200yds passing/game, and QB is white are 76% ATS. Well this week we are going with two homedogs and against one homedog (BAL). New Orleans favorite at home as the top pick. Good luck.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS	-3	-10.0	-7.0	67.5%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	3.5	7.3	3.8	59.5%
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS	2.5	-3	-5.5	58.7%
CHICAGO @ TENNESSEE	3.5	-2	-5.5	58.7%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI	3.5	0.9	-2.6	54.1%
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE	-5	-8.2	-3.2	53.8%
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON	-3	-5.3	-2.3	52.1%
DALLAS @ ATLANTA	-4	-5.2	-1.2	52.1%
DETROIT @ JACKSONVILLE	3.5	2	-1.5	51.9%
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON	-10.5	-15.7	-5.2	51.6%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-7.5	-13.8	-6.3	51.1%
ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY	-11	-12.9	-1.9	51.1%
TAMPA BAY @ OAKLAND	-1.5	-2.2	-0.7	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NY GIANTS	-3	-6.1	-3.1	49.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.