Week 8 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Seattle +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Oakland +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Atlanta +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Diego -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

4 away team picks this week, 3 of them are underdogs. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $210 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ DETROIT -3 2 5 59.0%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -2 1.2 3.2 58.8%
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA -2.5 2.1 4.6 58.5%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND 3 6.7 3.7 58.3%
WASHINGTON @ PITTSBURGH -5 -2.6 2.4 55.6%
NEW ORLEANS @ DENVER -6 2.5 8.5 54.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ GREEN BAY -13.5 -19.5 -6.0 52.6%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 51.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS -2.5 -7.0 -4.5 50.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3.5 -8.2 -4.7 50.3%
TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA -6.5 -3.0 3.5 49.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ ST LOUIS 7 13.1 6.1 48.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA 6.5 4.2 -2.3 48.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS 1 -2.1 -3.1 48.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 7 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Chicago -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -3 correct NFL point spread pick

3 picks this week: my beloved Bears, repeating Washington this week, and the struggling Saints. I also like the point difference in the predictor for Green Bay but the percentage wasn't there. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 3 games giving us $245 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -5.5 -8.0 -2.5 62.5%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -6.5 -3.5 3.0 59.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 3 7.2 4.2 58.5%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 -5.6 1.9 55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -3.5 3.0 55.8%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -6 1.9 7.9 52.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 2.5 -4.6 -7.1 52.5%
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO -3 -5.0 -2.0 52.1%
GREEN BAY @ ST LOUIS 5.5 13.6 8.1 51.0%
CLEVELAND @ INDIANAPOLIS -3 3.7 6.7 50.9%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -10.5 -9.2 1.3 50.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ OAKLAND -4 -7.9 -3.9 49.3%
DALLAS @ CAROLINA 2 1 -1 49.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 6 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Miami -3.5 PUSH (with insurance)
Pick 2: Washington -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: San Francisco -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Surprisingly 4 home team favorites for this week's point spread picks. I'm personally more biased towards the yellow picks given how well the 49ers are playing and how bad the Cowboys are doing. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $190 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ MIAMI -3.5 -8.7 -5.2 67.5%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -7 -5.5 62.6%
DALLAS @ BALTIMORE -3.5 -11.7 -8.2 59.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -5 -10.0 -5.0 58.8%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -7.1 -2.6 55.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE 3.5 1.5 -2.0 54.1%
KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 -3.0 0.5 53.8%
BUFFALO @ ARIZONA -4.5 -15.7 -11.2 51.6%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO -2 -3.9 -1.9 51.4%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE 5 6.8 1.8 50.7%
OAKLAND @ ATLANTA -8.5 -20.0 -11.5 50.4%
GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON -4 -7.8 -3.8 50.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -3 -12.1 -9.1 50.1%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND 2 1.9 -0.1 49.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Week 5 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Arizona -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Philadelphia +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Green Bay -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Seattle +3 correct NFL point spread pick

Official picks start this week 5. That means that I will start keeping track of results and tabulating them on the top right table titled 2012 ATS Record.We should have enough data from this season (with the help of weighting) to start betting on teams that are very different from last season, e.g. Denver.

This project started in 2006 when I was in grad school (Statistics at UIC) and a Finance professor gave a lecture on some technique he used to measure and predict results in figure skating. Statistically, it was interesting, the sport not so much. So I started tinkering with data and talking with him. By mid-season 2007, I started running a model and posting results on this blog. I did it more as a personal journal and force myself to make picks every week. Although 95% is automatic, there is still a judgement call on games that I decide not to bet on (because of injuries, weather, or some other significant issue not accounted in the data I have).

In the second half of 2007, I made 59% of correct picks against the spread. 2008 I broke even with 52%. 2009 I hit a record high 62%. In 2010 I was applying Kelly's formula and betting higher on games from the second half of the season and although I went only slightly above 52% ATS, money gains were at 17%. In 2011 we hit rock bottom with 43.6% ATS.

We've had our ups and downs, but I still enjoy doing this. I enjoy NFL games more after analyzing this data and putting a little you know what well you know where. The point is that I'm probably one of the few handicappers (although I consider myself more of a Statistician) that year after year puts results out there for everyone to see, at no cost, without any tricks. Take them as they are: free NFL picks against the spread, that's all. You won't see me blabber much throughout the season nor analyze each of the picks. Again, 95% is a computer making NFL picks.

I do have a feeling that visiting teams have a bit of a bias with my current model even though there is a home field advantage adjustment. The model also favors heavy favorites, especially if they are at home. Those are the only two things I've noticed and both are actually present in this week's point spread picks. OK well without further a due, here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2012 NFL season.

UPDATE: I forgot to put the bankroll amount. We're doing the lower bound for the beginning of the season which is 15% of bankroll  for 5 games gives us a bet of $150 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS 1.5 7.5 6.0 66.7%
BUFFALO @ SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 -16.0 -6.5 60.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 1.0 4.5 59.0%
GREEN BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS 7 17.7 10.7 58.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -3 0.7 3.7 58.0%
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON 3 0.1 -2.9 54.1%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -15.0 -8.0 51.4%
CLEVELAND @ NY GIANTS -9 -10.9 -1.9 51.1%
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY 5 11.4 6.4 51.1%
HOUSTON @ NY JETS 7.5 1.8 -5.7 50.0%
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI -4 -1.9 2.1 50.0%
CHICAGO @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 7.5 2.0 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -6.7 -3.2 49.3%
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA -5.5 -1.5 4.0 48.4%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.