2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: Buffalo -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets -3 correct NFL point spread pick

I am very disappointed with the results this year. Although a friend told me there is still a lot of football left, and he's right, by week 13 I should've seen signs of success. In other years, we were already up in the 20-30% ROI range. The model might need to be revisited in the off-season, but at this point all I can do is sit back and hope for a great success in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $145 per game for a total of $435.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO-1.5-3.2-1.760.0%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA4.57.93.458.7%
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON37.14.158.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE30.9-2.152.5%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE31.7-1.352.5%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI-38.211.252.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY-3-4.9-1.952.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO-7-9.3-2.352.0%
DENVER @ MINNESOTA-1.50.62.152.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS-9-7.11.951.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-6.54.511.051.8%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS6.517.010.551.4%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO-13-10350.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND-20-28.9-8.949.5%
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON2.552.549.3%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND6.5103.547.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Comments

I'm with you on the Cowboys, against you on the other two.

Full picks: Titans +1.5, Dolphins -3, Saints -8.5, Buccaneers -3, Redskins +3, Cowboys -4.

Might have another one Sunday too. Still just .500 this season.
Jaime said…
Another bad week for me. The boat keeps thinking.
Mr McP said…
You're not giving up, are you Jamie? This is no worse than a bad run of cards at blackjack, and even if you're a good counter, those runs will come. (I have some personal experience with that.) Keep the faith (and look hard at your system in the off-season).
Jaime said…
Mr McP, I appreciate your words of encouragement. No, I'm not giving up, ever. I've been traveling like crazy and finally found some time to sit down and run this thing.