2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: St. Louis +13.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Baltimore -13 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Last week the picks went 0-4. Things went as bad as they could go. This week we'll hopefully make up some ground. I really have nothing else to say than just, this is not a get rich quick thing, but rather a long term investment hoping that year over year we keep increasing ROI.

This week we'll stay at 16% of bankroll. Giving us $85 per game for a total of $425.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 8 of the 2011 NFL season.









































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS13.512.6-0.972.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH37.54.571.2%
DETROIT @ DENVER36.33.366.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON-9.5-11.7-2.262.2%
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE-13-24.8-11.859.2%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA-3.53.16.655.0%
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE33.50.553.6%
BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON610450.4%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY3.573.550.3%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA-3.5-1.61.950.0%
MIAMI @ NY GIANTS-10-14-449.1%
CLEVELAND @ SAN FRANCISCO-8.5-53.548.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE-8.5-35.547.8%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Comments

We agree on Ravens -13. I may have more picks by the end of the week, but it's looking doubtful.
Mr McP said…
Jamie - Could you double-check your "Prediction-Vegas -> Pick" numbers for the New Orleans game? The published numbers don't seem to make sense.
Jaime said…
Mr McP thanks for catching this. The pick is actually a very dangerous one. Yes, it's St. Louis who is 0-5 ATS. I'm not going to let my emotion drive this so I'm sticking to it.
James said…
Jamie,

Best book I've ever read with regards to real life statistics... I think you would love it:

"Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

I love your blog... nothing better than posting in real time, win or lose.... Keep up the great work!

-Jamie
DDW said…
My picks vs yours:

NO -13.5
NE -3
DET -3
JAC +9.5
ARI +13

Good luck Jaime