2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3
No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 0-4 and overall the picks were at a mere 42% ATS and 68% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles week 3 picks:
How to read the table:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY | -1.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 66.3% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA | -3.5 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 58.9% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | 3.5 | -5.7 | -9.2 | 58.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -7.5 | -10 | -2.5 | 56.4% |
| GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 | 54.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO | -14.5 | -17 | -2.5 | 53.5% |
| PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS | 10.5 | 14 | -3.5 | 53.3% |
| HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS | -4 | -3 | 1 | 51.3% |
| NY JETS @ OAKLAND | 3.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 51.1% |
| BALTIMORE @ ST LOUIS | 4 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 50.8% |
| DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 3.5 | -0.9 | -4.4 | 50.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 8.5 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 50.5% |
| MIAMI @ CLEVELAND | -2.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 50.0% |
| DENVER @ TENNESSEE | -6.5 | -7.6 | -1.1 | 50.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI | -2.5 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
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