| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY | -1.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 66.3% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ CAROLINA | -3.5 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 58.9% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | 3.5 | -5.7 | -9.2 | 58.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -7.5 | -10 | -2.5 | 56.4% |
| GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 | 54.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO | -14.5 | -17 | -2.5 | 53.5% |
| PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS | 10.5 | 14 | -3.5 | 53.3% |
| HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS | -4 | -3 | 1 | 51.3% |
| NY JETS @ OAKLAND | 3.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 51.1% |
| BALTIMORE @ ST LOUIS | 4 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 50.8% |
| DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 3.5 | -0.9 | -4.4 | 50.7% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 8.5 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 50.5% |
| MIAMI @ CLEVELAND | -2.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 50.0% |
| DENVER @ TENNESSEE | -6.5 | -7.6 | -1.1 | 50.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI | -2.5 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
4 comments:
By my math you went 0-4 in week two. What game did you win?
you're right, 0-4.
and this week they were pretty bad too. 1-2, and like 33% for all. No worries, once we get more data and shift the weighting to the first few weeks, predictive models should adjust.
just noticed that the MNF game is not there. apparently the point spread data was not retrieved for that game and i didn't notice until now
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