2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: Jacksonville +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$90
Pick 2: Miami +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $63.64
Pick 3: New Orleans -10 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$90 BS!
Pick 4: Minnesota +3 correct NFL point spread pick + $63.64

We (yes, you who follow my picks and I) are crushing the sports books. The hundreds of readers I get to this NFL spread picks blog daily apparently are taking advantage of these outrageously successful free NFL picks. The theory of the huge disparity of teams is hurting the sports books in Vegas according to Bad Teams Turn Sports Books into Losers and in part it could be my fault :)

Week 8
"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there." - Steve Davidson

That is how I felt this week. Before I run my NFL statistical models of the point spread, I usually just do what any other regular person would do: look at spread for each game. Based on pure judgement, then I start thinking which games might be good opportunities. Usually, like this week, I end up with a completely different set of picks after running the stats. But this week I could not pinpoint a game where I was very confident (like last week Indi pick) that it would be a good pick and if the model confirmed even better. For example, this week I thought Giants should beat the Eagles, Houston will cover, and Bears suck so no way they'll win by more than two TDs, although none of them I was completely excited about.

This week, since the confidence levels are a bit lower, according to Kelly's formula the bankroll will decrease as well. We'll be using 18% of bankroll weighted close to probabilities.

Then, I ran the stats and soon after these 4 picks showed up I was a bit skeptic, but the more I think about them the more I like them. Here is why:

JAC @ TEN $90 - Ok so Vince Young is starting, does that mean they're better? No, if not he would have started at the beginning of the season and would have led the team last year to a 13-3 record.

ATL @ NO $90 - Who can bet against the Saints? If you did last week, at the 3rd quarter you were probably thinking of banking the money, oops. This team is amazing and so fun to watch, can't wait to see them Monday night at home. They are undefeated both straight up and against the spread.

MIA @ NYJ $70 - Miami beat them this year and will beat them again. Don't judge this game by their W/L records, Miami has had a slighter tougher schedule. Chad Henne is playing relatively well and Ricky Williams is rocking. Mr. Sanchez will throw a couple of INTs.

MIN @ GB $70 - Will Favre be playing at home or away? Who will everyone at Green Bay cheer for? In any case, I think it is Mr Peterson who will dominate. He's been quiet the past few weeks, due for a break out game.

Below our NFL week 8 point spread estimates and confidence percentages:











































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE-33.16.159%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS-10-13.8-3.858%
MIAMI @ NY JETS-32.75.756%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY-30.43.456%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE-3.5-1.61.952%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO3.59.25.750%
SAN FRANCISCO @ INDIANAPOLIS-12.5-12.6-0.150%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT-4-5.7-1.748%
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO-13.5-22.5-9.046%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA-10-19.6-9.643%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO-16.5-12.54.042%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS-9.5-3.36.242%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA0-2.2-2.240%

9 comments:

Joel said...

For some reason this week my model is making A LOT of picks, so here they are:

Bears -14
Texans -3.5
Lions -4
Seahawks +10
Chargers -17
Jaguars +3
Packers -3
Saints -10

Overall, I'm agreeing with you, HOWEVER; I have the Packers to win, so we finally have a game where I can rout against you (Guess that sounds evil doesn't it?)

Why the Packers can win? If it turns out to be cold, Farve will shutdown like he has in the last few cold games as a Packer. If you look, the Packer wins come from pretty crappy teams, but this team was able to make a game out of it with the Vikings. Peterson should be slower on a grass field as well. Hell, Peterson's slow speed is faster then most of the NFL :)

I REALLY like the Jags +3. The Titans are nothing but disappointment.

I do not understand why the point spread is so low. Sure the Falcons have proven they can score, but the Saints should own that game.

DDW said...

Jaime,

Great weekend last weekend. I'm finding it very useful to compare my numbers with your numbers. My picks compared to yours are:

JAC +3
NO -10
MIA +3
GB -3

I am leaning towards choosing the JAC and MIA game, but unsure still of the other two.

GB has a tough game ahead of them with MIN and maybe my numbers are somewhat skewed because of GB's recent wins, but I think they take this game at home.

Anyways, good luck this weekend!!

HappyBreathNet said...

I really hope you have a week (because we're in complete agreement). I've got JAC +3 as a best bet and MIA +3.5 as a single bet. My model also agrees on MIN +3 and NO -10 (although it didn't bet on those games). I also have Dallas -9.5 and STL +3.5.

- Happy

HappyBreathNet said...

PS - the BOBB (Based on Brian Burke) model disagrees with us on Miami. He has NYJ -15.5!

HappyBreathNet said...

OK. What I said about my model agreeing with yours was true. I made a mistake in generating the BOBB picks. The BOBB model disagrees with you on Minnesota (he has GB -7.8). I think the BOBB model is in agreement with your other picks.


BOBB
Happy
Vegas

TEN +1.2
TEN +0.3
TEN -3

NYJ -3.1
NYJ +0.7
NYJ -3.5

DAL -11.5
DAL -14.2
DAL -9.5

DET -2.8
DET +0.1
DET -3.5

GB -7.8
GB 0
GB -3

NO -14.2
NO -11.9
NO -10

CHI -15.5
CHI -12
CHI -13.5

BAL +7.4
NA
BAL -3.5

IND -17.9
NA
IND -11.5

PHI +2.4
NA
PHI +1

BUF +4.7
NA
BUF +3.5

SD -17.0
NA
SD -16.5

ARZ -12.0
NA
ARZ -10

siggy said...

You had another great weekend--CONGRATS!!!!
This Week my model gives me
Colts -11 1/2
Lions -3 1/2
Minny + 3 1/2
Saints - 9 1/2

dtBy said...

Wow, when did you add yourself to the NFL Prediction Tracker? I will be interested to see how you far across the board. Your bet selections are clearly doing well!

A really tough week, especially as I, again, am not running my model. I only see one where I think I might like the other side: Falcons +10.

I've been reading your blog since (I believe) the very first posting. It's great to see you having a stellar year.

Good luck!

Jaime said...

dtby,

Todd Beck was kind enough to add me to the prediction tracker this week. Thanks Todd. I'm also anxious to see how it compares with others.

Although, the secret sauce for my model is selecting those games where the probability of success is higher.

HappyBreathNet said...

I really had my hopes up after the morning games (7/7) but the Jacksonville game got me too. Since I had put 2 units on it, I finished WeekEight at 7/9.