2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7

Pick 1: Indianapolis -13.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $81.82
Pick 2: Chicago +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$75
Pick 3: Arizona +7 correct NFL point spread pick + $68.18
Pick 4: Philadelphia -7 correct NFL point spread pick + $81.82

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." --Kehlog Albran. With reference to NFL games, I insist on my belief of the huge disparity of teams this year. Using statistical modeling to predict scores uses historical data not only to predict the future, but to explain the present. So far, it has paid well. Last week we banked on Tennessee, but lost on Oakland. This week, I have two picks that will continue to validate this theory.

As you can see from the table below of NFL point spread predictions with confidence estimates, I have decided to stay away from the top pick of the week. QB Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and will probably not play Sunday, therefore the Bills pick is off. Minnesota might be a good pick this week, but since coincidentally we have 4 picks above 60% (all visiting teams), it will not be officially a pick.

This week, we are using 22% of the bankroll and will weigh the two highly disparate team games higher. Lets briefly go over the picks:

IND @ STL $90 - This spread should be lingering around 17. Indi has won the last 3 games by more than 17 points. Coming off a bye week, they come to destroy the Rams. Bulger is back! Last week he threw 213 yds with 1TD and 1 INT, are you worried?

CHI @ CIN $75 - At first I did not want to go with my beloved Bears. Their offensive line gave Cutler less than 3 seconds to pass the ball and they could not open holes when they were two yards away from the goal. But the model said so, you gotta pick'em? Well sometimes I mix gut feeling with statistics. But once I saw that the Bengals pass rush will be deteriorated this week with DE Antwan Odom out for the season, what the heck, lets go with the model. What do you think?

ARI @ NYG $75 - Probably many of you will disagree with this pick. New York, at home, Eli, etc. Look at the teams NY has beaten: WAS, DAL, TB, KC, OAK tough schedule. Arizona's WR Boldin is questionable, but his replacement Steve Breaston has shown confidence that he can take the No. 2 role.

PHI @ WAS - $90 I don't care that Philadelphia lost against Oakland nor that McNabb got sacked 6 times last week. Washington has officially joined the tomato cans of the NFL after last week's lost against KC. Now, the coach is not even calling the plays and many players and coaches are not happy about this. Philadelphia by 59 :)

Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 7 point spread picks:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ CAROLINA-7-6.30.769%
ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS-73.410.464%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND63.9-2.148%
ATLANTA @ DALLAS-43.87.846%
NEW ORLEANS @ MIAMI6.57.20.742%


siggy said…
Jamie the Pickle--rock on.
My Picks for Week 7
I love the Colts and I agree with Phily but I think Chic. and Arizona are to tough to call.
Unknown said…
Well, 0-5 last week leaves my confidence shot. So... I spent Tuesday gathering data from 2007, what fun!, but here are my picks for Week 7:

Packers -7
Buccaneers +15
Texans -3
Cardinals +7

So I do NOT disagree with your Cardinals pick (Love double negatives right?) Cardinals have a heavy offense and I believe they will be able to keep up with the scoring pace of the Giants.

All of the rest of your picks I'd swing in your direction. I actually really want to bet on the Colts this week, but I'm probably not going to.

Packers -7, I am shocked at how low this is. The Browns are absolutely crap right now.

Buccaneers +15, Yes the Pats blew out the Titans last week, but what have the Titans done this season? Nothing. This was a hard bet for me to take, but I'm in favor of Tampa bay.

Texans -3. 49ers are my team. I do not like betting against them. Hell, I'll still be going to them. However; Their 3 wins are against... NFC West teams. They played the Cardinals when they haven't had their act together. As much as I'd like the 49ers to pull this one out, I just can't see it.

Well good luck this week! Do you keep track of the overall win-lose ATS?
Jaime said…

I also like the packers. Notice the prediction is well above the 7-point spread. Betting against New England? How's the Buccaneers defense?

We keep track of the overall ATS. There is a link on the top menu of the page called "ATS Standings. I usually update it every time I post new NFL picks.
HappyBreathNet said…
You definitely called it on the TEN game; Brian Burke and I both had TEN. Dang. But I’m still feeling pretty good since my model was 8/11 (73%) on bet units last week.

The table below includes our picks for week seven. (BOBB stands for based on Brian Burke, a NY Times sports writer who publishes NFL probabilities and is the Webmaster of Advanced NFL stats). Note that Happy (me) contains some “NA,” as does Pickles (you). That’s because you and I both list our confidence. I haven’t included picks where the confidence is below 52.4%, which is required to beat 10% juice. The Vegas line used was what Covers.com had as their average line on Wednesday evening. I’ve covered my method for Converting probabilities to point-spreads in the linked article. This method was applied to Brian Burke’s probabilities.

Pickles BOBB Happy Vegas
NA CLE +12.7 CLE +12.4 CLE +7
PIT+2.1 PIT -10.7 PIT +0.5 PIT -4
CIN+0.9 CIN -1 CIN +2.7 CIN -1
NA KC +11.6 KC +8 KC +4.5
HOU-7.8 HOU -6.9 HOU -4.8 HOU -3
NA DAL -7.7 DAL -6.2 DAL -4
NA TB +15.3 NA TB +14.5
NYG+3.4 NYG -11.7 NA NYG -7
CAR-6.3 CAR +1.9 NA CAR -7
STL+21.5 STL +21.5 NA STL +13
NA MIA +16.1 NA MIA +6
NA OAK +3.6 NA OAK +6

Also note that I include over / under bets. I do this to narrow the distribution around the positive expectation value to decrease the likelihood of losing by way of the standard deviation.

PS - love the "statistician on a mission" tagline!
HappyBreathNet said…
PPS - I'm really glad you agree with me on MIN and CHI. Brian Burke's model had the CHI game as a toss up and had PIT -10.7 as the appropriate line in that game. I have PIT +0.5, so needless to say I took MIN with 4 points.
Anonymous said…
Wow, picking is really difficult when you're stuck working with only your own bar stool punditry and instincts. Still, I promised myself I wouldn't run my models or invest too much time in looking at lines and news.

I like Indy and Philly. The other two, not so much. I really like siggy's Minny +4.5, too.

Good luck!
DDW said…
Good week last week Jaime. I didn't bet the games you picked but I did well on the games I took. My picks vs yours:

STL +13
CHI +1
ARI +7
PHI -7

I don't like the STL pick but that's what my numbers say.

Good luck this week.
DDW said…

Did you actually compare NE to TEN? They are actually playing TB
DDW said…
Your GB pick shows 43% confidence...I thought your previous suggestions stated that less than 50% means the other team has a higher probability of covering.
Jaime said…

I don't like the STL pick either :)
Thanks for noticing that, no it ran with Tampa Bay, but because they are playing in London, I had to add the team labels manually in that game. Thanks for noticing.

About the GB, yes that is correct, although I usually do not use such predictions.
HappyBreathNet said…
I think the formatting in our table got pretty screwed up. For example, the row that says:

NA CLE +12.7 CLE +12.4 CLE +7

Should be interpreted like this:

Jamie didn't consider the game betworth, the Based on Brian Burke thinks you should get 12.7 points if you take Cleveland, the Happy model thinks you need 12.4 points to take Cleveland. Since Vegas is only giving CLE +7, BOBB and Happy both take GB -7.
Jaime said…
The "Disparity Theory" unfolding before our eyes. Tomato cans Rams, Browns, Chiefs, and Buccaneers receiving huge blowouts.
Unknown said…
Nice job with the picks Jamie, your model is very impressive so far, as with your decisions of games not to bet on.

You never know how much of an impact an injury can have on a game. Wish there was an easy way to model that :)
Unknown said…
nice picks. keep up the good work!
Jaime said…
Thank you Anthony, I will do my best.

Week 8 NFL picks coming today Wednesday late night or tomorrow morning.