2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6

Pick 1: New England -9 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91
Pick 2: Philadelphia -14 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 3: Denver +4 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91

Should we keep banking on weak teams? Today I read an article (that I couldn't find on the Chicago Reader website) about how 2009 is geared towards having the most number of teams with less than 3 wins for the season. In marketing, we would classify NFL teams into 3 buckets: great, average, terrible. Michael Lombardi wrote an interesting article on this phenomenon of a huge disparity between best and worst NFL teams.

In a market, these obvious opportunities shouldn't exist right? Only those that believe in the efficient market hypothesis would agree. The market should at least adjust. This week the Rams are a 14 point underdog, while last week it was 10 points. For Oakland, they are a 14 point underdog at home while they were 16 point last week, considering home field, market adjusted one point (assuming its opponents on both weeks belong to the above average group).

The question is: has the market adjusted enough? Has it made adjustments to all below average teams? Yes and no as my NFL week 6 picks show.

"Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the future", but that will not stop us finding 'under priced' games.

Tennessee @ New England $100 - Tennessee is having quarterback insecurities. Its defense is suffering. The Patriots are returning to their old selves (except for last week's lesson with Denver). Randy Moss did not practice this week, but apparently not due to any injuries. No serious injuries leads to our first pick, the Patriots demolish the Titans at home.

Philadelphia @ Oakland $100 - The Eagles can score and they've shown it even without Westbrook. Oakland had a good game at home their first week against the Chargers, but that is all I've seen. Eagles by more that 3 TDs.

Denver @ San Diego $100 - I hated on Denver on last week's post comments. Afterwords, I read an article on Sports Illustrated about their defense, their 25 new players, and how Orton fits well with their play. This week, the model picks Denver and I'm going with it. By the way, Denver is 1 of 3 teams that is perfect against the spread. See the Point Spread Standings.

At the current bankroll, 20% of it gets us at $100 per game for this week. Good luck!

Other games to stay away:
Pittsburgh cannot run the ball without Parker and has yet to beat a team this year by more than 10 (and they even played Detroit). Cutler and Chicago's running game have to be proven before I feel comfortable with their pick. Rams may stand no chance in this game, but I still can't figure out in which slot does Jacksonville belong to after last week's debacle in Seattle.

Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 6 point spread predictions:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND-9-12.6-3.663%
PHILADELPHIA @ OAKLAND1422.28.261%
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH-14-15.1-1.159%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA-32.45.457%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO-43.07.057%
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON-6.5-9.8-3.356%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS-9.5-11.0-1.554%
BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA-31.04.054%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI-4.5-3.80.753%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE-37.510.550%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS-3-4.5-1.547%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY-13.5-10.03.544%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY3.58.65.143%
ST LOUIS @ JACKSONVILLE-10-16.7-6.741%

19 comments:

Joel said...

Hmmmm, for the first week, I can say I'm not betting on any of these games.

If I were, these would be my picks:

New England -9
Raiders +14
Chargers -4

Again, I don't have much faith in any of these picks.

This week I'm looking at

Jets -10
Lions +14
Jaguars -10
Bengals -4.5

Joel said...

I should also say you are doing very well the past few weeks. Congrats.

Jaime said...

Joel, I have to admit, this week it was a lot harder than last week. But you would pick Oakland if you had to? We'll see about that. After all the controversy this week, Donnovan will show Rush Limbaugh that he is not underrated.

As you can see from my table, I would agree with your Jets, Lions, and Jaguars pick.

The Bengals, I'm not so sure about. I think their record reflects a couple of lucky TD passes and not a really strong team. Yes, they're young and have whole new staff, but they will come down. After this, all their previously misbehaved players will return to their old ways.

siggy said...

My top 4 picks this week--Patriots and Denver are my best 2 and its scary because those are also 2 of yours. The other 2 Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

Joel said...

Jaime, it is really hard for me to grip the idea that an NFL team is just that BAD. For the Eagles and Raiders line, my prediction is practically the exact same as the line itself.

There are two problems that are hard to when making picks that I come across.
#1: Trust the model. It may see something that you don't and avoid the human bias.
#2 Human bias isn't necessarily a bad thing, if you have your information correct. But do you ever really know? Plus, modeling human behavior is hard as hell. Your most likely never going to get a great relationship.

To be honest, I'm more on the side of trusting the model, so much as it is a good one (but do you REALLY ever know?). So far it has been a decent 2009. (If you want the website for my picks, I'll e-mail it to you, I really just made it for some friends, so its simplistic.)

As for the Bengals, the Texans have disappointed nearly every game this season regarding spreads. I really expected them to come out shining this year, but it just isn't the case. I'll stick to the Bengals. Guess we will see!

I also added the pick:
Steelers -14

The browns just did so horribly last game. Did you see Anderson's total passing yards?

HappyBreathNet said...

You are one of only three websites posting truly free NFL picks (actually 2.5) kudos! Thanks for publishing this very useful content! I’ve created a table comparing our spreads (BOBB stands for based on Brian Burke, a NY Times sports writer who publishes NFL probabilities and is the Webmaster of Advanced NFL stats). Happy is me and Pickles is you. The Vegas line used was what Covers.com had as their average line on Wednesday evening. Games my model bet on are in bold.


Pickles
BOBB
Happy
Vegas

CIN -3.8
CIN -4.4
CIN -0.4
CIN -4.5

__________________

GB -10
GB -12
GB -15.4
GB -13.5
__________________

MIN +1.0
MIN -3.6
MIN -4.2
MIN -3.0
__________________

NO -4.5
NO -4.8
NO -2.7
NO -3.0
__________________

PIT -15.1
PIT -16.4
PIT -14.3
PIT -14.0
__________________


TB +8.6
TB +2.2
TB +5.7
TB +3.0

__________________

WAS -9.8
WAS -7.4
WAS -5.5
WAS -6.5
__________________


JAC -16.7
JAC -14.1
JAC -11.9
JAC -9.5

__________________

SEA +7.5
SEA -1.5
SEA +0.4
SEA -3.0
__________________

OAK +22.2
OAK +14.0
OAK +15.0
OAK +14.0
__________________


NE -12.6
NE -2.8
NE -7.1
NE -9.5

__________________


NYJ -11.0
NYJ -8.8
NYJ -6.9
NYJ -10.0

__________________

ATL +2.4
ATL -4.0
ATL -2.5
ATL -3.0

Jaime said...

Wow Happy how cool!

Jaime said...

Joel,

No one every really knows. This is a probability game and there is never a 100% probability of a cover (regardless of what other handicappers claim).

Trusting the model comes by back-testing and making picks in real life like what you and I are doing. I do think that picking games is 80% science and 20% art. You have to know your models well enough to know when they work, when they don't, what games seem like a trap, which players are injured, how the weather can affect the game, etc.

DDW said...

Hey Jaime,

Great week last week! My picks compared to yours are:

TEN +9
PHI -14
DEN +4

I'm not sure I will bet any of the 3 above. I have a feeling NE will cover but my numbers say other-wise; they just haven't been very consistent this year.

PHI's defense is not as good as NYG's, but I believe it's good enough to cover the points vs OAK.

SD is my team so I don't bet against them, but the numbers say DEN covers.

Good luck this week!

dtBy said...

Disagreement! I've got the Titans +9.5, though I would have also taken them +9.

I agree with the Broncos pick.

Sadly, this is my last week of NFL handicapping, at least for a while. I'm leaving the country for a job.

Good luck/

dimitry said...

Pickles, You mentioned "Parker" in you Philli game analysis. I assume you meant Willie Parker and are confusing Philli with Pittsburg?

Jaime said...

Dimitry,

Thanks for the correction, I meant to say Westbrook.

Jaime said...

dtBy,

I wish you the best! What country are you going to? They have internet, hopefully, which at least lets you keep track of how well we are doing over here week by week.

Best,

Jaime

dtBy said...

Off to Malaysia... of all places. I will be checking on this site each week, I'm sure. I might even adopt your picks as my own for rooting purposes, since I'll have no wagers!

I need this Titans win this week to even get close to the 7:5 we talked about!

Good luck.

Jaime said...

Why no wagers? It might actually be a lot easier to place wagers online with a non-US cc.

dtBy said...

Well, no wagering for a few weeks while I get settled. I don't presently have an online account, so I'll have to work out that whole process.

Then there's the fact that my accuracy in the late weeks has been horrible for the past 3 or 4 years.. so, I'm probably done for the season.

Next year, though, I shall be ready to provide more tasty fadeable picks!

dtBy said...

Wow, two blow-outs against the spread. One good and one bad.

Personally, I went 0-3 today. Nothing looked like I expected.

Go Broncos!

Joel said...

0-5 here hahah. Oh god...

Jaime said...

Yes, two blowouts and yes Go Broncos!