NFL Machine Learning Picks: Conference Championship
Final Say
Divisional playoffs have arrived and we’re down to 4 teams. Each of the games' geeky stat comparison can be found here for the NFC and the AFC Divisional Games.
First let me review last week. The Good: SF narrative with Prescott’s fall was accurate. CIN was money but chickened out bc of the offensive line. Should’ve checked the weather. KC I feel like it was still the right side had Mahomes not been hurt. The Ugly: Giants with one of the worst running offenses against the #1 running offense. We gotta notice this!
On to the conference games.
San Francisco +2.5
If you wait, we may get it at +3, although the +125 straight up seems like a possibility.
It’s tough betting a “rookie” QB against a team that looked unstoppable last week (recency bias). The #1 running offense with a QB that can scramble. AJ is a huge deep threat that could be unstoppable. Of course, a #1 sack defense that can disrupt this rookie. But here’s why I ended up on the 49ers:
Buying the narrative that the defense stops the run and bc Purdy throws mostly short, they won’t get to him as much.
All the models are crazily pointing at SF winning by an average of 7!
I prefer backing a team that has covered 9 of the last 10 vs a team that has a 9-9 ATS record.
Home favorites during the playoffs haven’t done well during the playoffs in the past covering 37% since 2000.
SF hasn’t lost since McCaffrey arrived. They have more offensive weapons. Offense wins championships.
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