NFC Divisional Games - Early Look
NYG @ PHI -7.5
Injuries: PHI rested one week which should benefit Hurts to fully recover and use his ground game this week. NYG has Jackson and McKinney healthy who weren’t there in their first matchup in Week 15.
Money: NYG getting 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.
QB Rating: Moderate edge Hurts. Hurts dominates the stats on both run and passing against Jones. 13 rushing TDs vs 7, 760 yars vs 705. On the air 3500 vs 2900 yards, 22 TDs vs 15, and 6 vs 5 INTs.
Offensive Line: Slight edge PHI. Overall rank 6th vs 24th. Passing: adjusted sack rate (asr) for PHI vs NYG was 7.7% and 8.4% 17th and 24th ranked in the league respectively. PHI defends their QB slightly better but both are below average. Opening for the run, both were very good. NYG is better at short runs and power but PHI ranks better in 2nd level and open field.
Defensive Line: Slight edge PHI. Overall they are neither good mostly because of their protecting the run. PHI ranked last in power runs while NYG ranks 26th. Open field wise, PHI is top 10 and NYG still bottom 5. Against the pass, PHI is an outlier with 11.2% asr and 70 sacks, first in the league. NYG have 41 sacks and 6.7% asr rank 22nd (no sacks last week).
Offense: Slight edge PHI. Both are top 10 offenses with similar pass DVOA but PHI ranks 1st running the ball and the Giants 7th. Weighted DVOA, given Hurts didn’t play two games, puts these two offenses much closer together.
Defense: Slight edge PHI. Overall, PHI is better ranked. PHI is very good against the pass (partly bc asr). They do rank 21st against the run. The Giants are bottom 5 DVOA with the worst DVOA against the run.
ATS: PHI finished the regular season 8-9 ATS not covering their last 5. NYG finished at 14-4 ATS having covered their last 5 but note that their last non-cover was against the Eagles in Week 15.
Trends: During playoffs since 2000, home team favorites between 7 and 10 have gone 15-25 (37%) ATS. Home teams favorites by more than 7 but less than 10 covered 8-9 this season and 50% so no trend during regular season.
Matchups: PHI beat NYG by 16 and ran for over 250 yards in Week 15 covering a 7 point spread. Then in Week 18 with NYG benched starters and PHI playing conservatively PHI won by 6 not covering a 17 point spread.
Conclusion: To bet on the Giants, you need to believe that their defense is much better than the numbers reflect with all their players healthy. The offenses ranked similarly but the Giants will be able to do damage on the ground and run the clock. Sharps, trends and ATS are also in your favor.
To be on the Eagles, you know Hurts can hurt you badly on both the ground and in the air. AJ Brown will be a lethal threat that could open up the game making the Giants pass more. You also like the outlier in sacks and know that Daniel Jones will have a lot less time to get rid of the ball.