AFC Wildcard Games Analytic Comparison
I wrote this format for all the wildcard games. You can find them on my channel. Here's what I wrote about the first wildcard game?
Injuries: No significant injuries known atm.
Money: 64% of the bets and 70% of the money on SF.
QB Rating: Even. Purdy has a better TD to INT ratio including the 2 TDs 0 INT against SEA in Week 15 and hence a slightly better QBR. Both QBs are new to the playoffs but Purdy is the rookie.
Offensive Line: Big edge SF. The offensive lines ranked 4th vs 30th in the league. SEA has allowed 15 more sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 8.9% vs 6.3% for SF. SEA slightly better at open field yards (ofy), but not far from SF which is probably not better when only including games McCaffrey has played.
Defensive Line: Moderate edge SF. Although both defensive lines have similar sacks and adjusted sack rates, SF does a much better job against the run. SEA ranks 24th in open field yards which measures effectiveness of stopping long runs. A good recipe for McCaffrey. SF ranks 1st in ofy.
Offense: Slight edge SF. SEA is trending the wrong way on offense scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. SF has scored more than 30 in 5 of their last 6. 3rd vs 8th rank on pass, but SEA is 24th in running and SF top 10 since McCaffrey trade.
Defense: Big edge SF. The #1 defense against the 21st. SEA ranks 25th at stopping the run and just average at stopping the pass while SF ranks 2nd and 5th respectively.
ATS: SF finished the regular season 11-6 ATS and 7-1 in their last 8. SEA finished at 7-10 ATS but 1-7 in their last 8.
Trends: Home teams by more than 10 finished the season 10-13 ATS but has hit 46-31 (60%) since 2019. Since 2000, during the playoffs, home teams favorite by 10 or more are 14-3 (82%) ATS.
Matchups: SF beat SEA twice this season covering both games as favorites by 8.5 and 3 in Weeks 2 and 15 respectively.