AFC Divisional Games - Early Look

 JAX @ KC -8.5

  • Injuries: No significant injuries known atm. 

  • Money: 61% of the bets and 51% of the money on KC.

  • QB Rating: Moderate edge to Mahomes. Mahomes is having an MVP season. He’s ranked #1 in almost every category. Finished with 41 TDs + 4 Rushing, 12 INT, 67% CR. Lawrence is ranked about 7th, lower in QBR, and has 25 TDs + 5 Rushing, 7 INT, 67% CR.

  • Offensive Line: Even. Both protect their QBs very well. Ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league with asr of 4.7%. JAX lacks short power runs but is very good on open field. KC ranked better overall because of adjusted line yards but about average on open field rank.

  • Defensive Line: Slight edge KC. Again, JAX’s defensive line ranks much better overall somehow. KC has 8.9% asr vs JAX’s 5.1 ranks 3rd vs 30th in the league. This means it’ll be harder for JAX to put pressure on the QB. Against the run, JAX much better at stopping both power and open field runs.

  • Offense: Moderate edge KC. The #1 overall and passing offense against a JAX offense that ranks 6th on the pass and 20th on the run. Weighted wise, there’s no difference for JAX but an improvement is seen. Also, KC’s weighted DVOA is about 20 percentage points better than JAX’s and about 4 percentage points better than SF’s.

  • Defense: Slight edge KC. KC’s is an average defense that is playing better as of late. They rank 20th against the pass. JAX is 30th at stopping the pass which is about 13 percentage points worse than KC. Overall, KC ranks 14th and JAC 26th.

  • ATS: KC finished the regular season 7-10 ATS (3-5 in last 8) while JAX is at 9-9 ATS, 5-1 in last 6. 

  • Trends: During playoffs since 2000, home team favorites between 7 and 10 have gone 15-25 (37%) ATS. Home teams favorites by more than 7 but less than 10 covered 8-9 this season and 50% so no trend during regular season.  

  • Matchups: Chiefs won by 10 in Week 11 where Mahomes threw 331 yds, 4 TDs, 1INT. The Chiefs fumbled twice. 3 turnovers vs 0 and somehow managed to cover a 9.5 point spread.

Conclusion: You like Jacksonville because KC doesn’t cover big spreads. The team has an offense that can score lots of points and keep up with KC. The sharps money and ATS trends are in your favor. 

You like KC because Mahomes is having an MVP year. The #1 offense against the 30th pass defense stands no chance. KC defense playing better as of late, stops them more times, KC doesn’t even punt and KC covers just as it did in Week 11.

For the CIN @ BUF Early look, click below.