NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Huge money making last week with Kansas City, Indi and Tennessee. Green Bay disappoints but gets the win. This week picks are free, just click. Playoff picks never free, win money together. Week 17 strong teams are getting no respect. Looking closely at who's playing for something and the covid protocols we find 3 opportunities to make money and set us up great for the playoffs.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5

The half point trap, don't fall for it. The Colts are playing well and with a 9-6, a win could guarantee a playoff spot. The Raiders are coming off a win against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos (and it was only by 4 points). The Colts are ranked 8th overall, 9th on both offense and defense, and 6th in weighted DVOA meaning they're playing at a higher level recently. 

One small caveat to this pick is that TE Darren Waller will likely play this week. It might be interesting when the news is official if bets come on the Raiders side and bring this down to 7 or maybe 6.5. As of now, everyone is betting the Colts so it could move to 8 but at that point it doesn't matter. This year, home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 9-5 ATS.

Keep watching the covid protocols and injuries for this game and hold off to see if we can get a 7 later in the week. Raiders added 6 players on Covid list, 3 of them starting line backers. The Colts added two offensive linemen including Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson. Darius Leonard (linebacker) and Zach Pascal didn't play against the Cardinals and could be back this week. Little worries about the offensive linemen, we'll keep a close eye.

KANSAS CITY -5

Only one touchdown against the Bengals? Oh yeah maybe because Joe Borrow has now had the best performance ever after torching the Ravens with 525 yards and 4TDs. GTFOH. The Ravens were missing more than half of their team. That's why I like the DVOA that accounts for all this. Same with Dak's performance against Washington, but we'll get to that later. 

The Bengals have been able to keep games close against good teams. Except for the loss against the Browns, most losses have been within 3 points. But this team hasn't seen a decent team since they lost against the Browns 7 weeks ago. They've faced a depleted Ravens team, the Broncos, overrated 49ers, Chargers (lost by 19), Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Ravens again, and the Lions. Now they face the #4 passing offense and will need to put up a bunch of points in order to keep up. 

This is also a great situation for an under rated road team. Road teams favorite by more than 3 but less than 7 have covered 56% in the last 320 games.

Again, watching covid lists closely but we know Kelce could be back. Without him, Pringle was able to catch 6 for 75 yards and two TDs. Edwards-Helaire is out but Darrell Williams did just fine with 11 carries and 55 yards. The Chiefs are playing for the #1 spot in the AFC and won't be putting the brakes just yet.

TAMPA BAY -13

Last pick is the typical David vs Goliath match up we like. The Super Bowl champs against the Jets with a spread less than 2 TDs. At -14 it's not as juicy, but Tampa rolls here even with all their injuries. We found out they can still run the ball without Furnette. Antonio Brown is a huge target for Brady. Mike Evans hamstring is bad and yesterday was put on the Covid list so unlikely he plays although there's a chance. 

To give you some stats on this David and Goliath story. This year, road teams favorite by more than 10 are 5-2 ATS. Home teams favorite by more than 10 are 13-6 ATS so in total Goliath is 18-8 ATS this year. 

The Jets are the worst team overall according to DVOA and worst in defense. Everyone is betting the Bucs here so this line might move to 14 very quickly. 

That's it. Keeping it simple this week. Three solid teams (chalky bets) that want a better place in the playoffs and want to dominate coming into the playoffs. Let's win some and save for the playoffs and the big game in February.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16

Posted this on Thursday on my Rokfin channel.

I'm not a big fan of football on Christmas day but my job is to analyze every single game and find opportunities. As we get closer to the playoffs, I start ramping up bets per game and go a full 30% of bank roll each week of the playoffs. For this week, let's dig in to opportunities but first Thursday Night Football.

49ers vs Titans predictions

The current line is 49ers as 3 point road favorites. Looks like AJ Brown is coming from IR and playing for the Titans which will be huge and is probably underrated. Julio Jones practiced on Wednesday but he has not a been factor this year. The 49ers have Mitchell out (RB), a safety Tartt, and LB Al-Shaair. Advantage: Titans.

The 49ers are looking good but also not they have beaten the Falcons, Bengals (barely), Vikings, and Jaguars. They also beat the Rams surprisingly but lost against the Seahawks. They are inflated. The Titans on the other hand deflated for losing against the Patriots and Texans. 

Overall the Tennessee offense is ranked 22nd and has been hurt from Henry's absence. Their passing game is ranked 26th in the league while the 49ers offense is on fire and is ranked top 5 in both rush and defense. That's concerning if you're thinking of betting the Titans. 

The 49ers defense ranks 2nd in rush but 21st in pass while TB is slightly better with a rank of 5th against the pass but 12th against the rush.

My models are split and have low confidence of betting this game as the prediction on either side is close to the spread. There doesn't seem to be an opportunity here. Gun to my head, I buy low sell high. 35% of bets and 53% of the money on the Titans. I like the home team with AJ Brown back and hopefully Julio Jones back to his old self plus Jimmy G throwing a few interceptions.

KANSAS CITY -7.5

It's a COVID mess. Hill, Bell, Kelce and others are on the Covid list. They should all be game time decisions. Assuming at least that Kelce and Hill play, this is a buy.

Pittsburgh is trash and it is time they get out of being "in the hunt". Last week they beat a depleted Titans offense while only scoring 19 points. This week they go to Kansas City to play the red hot Chiefs. None of the teams seems to have any significant injuries. Here's why I like the Chiefs:

-7.5 at home is usually a trap. They want you to bet the other side because 91% of the bets are on the Chiefs. Situationally it isn't great as home teams favorite by 7.5 have only covered 41% in the last 70 games.

The teams are trending in opposite directions. Chiefs up, Steelers down. Overall weighted DVOA at 4 for Chiefs vs 25 for the Steelers

One team falls behind, I trust the Chiefs will be able to throw themselves into a comeback. Although Mahomes didn't look for a big part of last week's game and still were able to cover thanks to an awesome performance from Kelce.

INDIANAPOLIS +1

A team that still hasn't gotten the respect they deserve. It is not just Jonathan Taylor it's that tought #8 ranked defense that seems to be playing better every game. Assuming Deandre Hopkins will still be out for this game, the Cardinals offense gets a huge blow from this. For the Colts, seems like they are down 3 players due to Covid.

These are two teams that also seem to be heading in different direction and we always take the one with positive momentum. The Colts are 8th overall but 6th if weighted more for recent games according to Football Outsiders. Both teams are 9-5 ATS this year. Situationally, home teams favorites by less than 3 but more than 1 are 44% ATS in last ~300 games. Bet the road team!

Also seems like everyone agrees with my machine learning models as 68% of the bets and 95% of the money is on the Colts so bet it quick before it gets to Colts -3. Oh no, a Christmas game. I won't watch live but will see the money going into the bank.

GIANTS VS EAGLES

The models loved the Giants, but they don't know the QB situation they are on. Since Daniel Jones got injured, the Giants have lost 3 and have scored an average of 10 points per game. Now comes a 5th round pick in Fromm to see what he can do against the Eagles who they beat a few weeks back. This is too unpredictable. I'm gonna stay away. 

WASHINGTON VS COWBOYS

Every time I like a big underdog like Washington +10, I ask myself if this is getting too cute. The Cowboys did beat them two weeks ago by 7 on the road so 10 at home seems ok right? Although the Cowboys rank #2 overall in DVOA, Dak has not been impressive at all. With one if not the best receiving squad he only ranks 8th in the league. 

Heinekie and others are expected to come back from covid protocols and this divisional rivalry should stay close if not a potential upset. Dallas' weakness is the run so I expect Washington to have a full run game, bring the clock down, bet under?, and keep the game close. 

Situationally it isn't great. Home teams favorite by 10 or more but less than 13 covered 57.4% of the time in the last 148 games. Maybe I am getting cute here. Ok, maybe a sprinkle or a unit but not big. Washington covers, hopefully.

TAMPA BAY VS CAROLINA

Another opportunity to fade Cam Newton and against the Bucs, let's go! Wait not so quick. Mike Evans, Fournette injured. Godwin out for season. The spread is still 10? Brady will find ways to win as he said. 

Models estimated this at Bucs to win by 13 so not much but a potential blowout. I'm not too worried about Fournette as I know others will be able to fill his role. I'm more worried about Brady throwing pick 6s because receivers can't get open and that's where Evans and Godwin would step in. Good news is that Antonio Brown will be coming back. 

CHARGERS -10

Chargers in a David and Goliath battle here and needing a win to secure a playoff spot while the Texans might be looking into a better draft spot. 

PACKERS -7.5

I can't believe the Packers didn't cover last week. They should have learned their lesson at almost losing that game. They come back and beat the crap out of the Browns at home.

Final take: probably a stay away or a half unit to see the Bucs defense come to life against Cam and get them through the hump.

MNF: NEW ORLEANS -3

Before they shut down the Bucs offense to zero, did you know the Saints defense is ranked #4 overall and first against the run? Sean Payton always carries a great defense and this year is no different. Imagine what they will do against Tua and the Dolphins #24 offense? You would be buying the Dolphins high since they have won 6 in a row, but the only decent team they beat was the Ravens. The rest was Jets (twice), Giants, Panthers, and Texans. Now they face a tough D, let's see how that goes...Easy money Saints -3.

Statistical model results below:

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14

Nice week last week going 4 for 5 and adding the Patriots over Twitter on Monday night. Let's keep it rolling this week. The strong beat the weak many times over last week. The one time I went cute with Jacksonville against the Rams was the only loss for the week.

KC was attractive at 9.5 but not as much at 10. Same with the NYG at +10.5 now down to 10 is good but not great. Fading Cam Newton as a 3 point favorite seems like a good idea. 

Sunday Night Football with Aaron Rodgers on Prime Time seems like a no brainer under two TDs favorite. Although the Bears defense is healthier, they are starting Justin Fields who will struggle against an underrated Packers D. 

Monday Night, why is Arizona not at -3? Stafford hasn't been good as of late and the Cardinals are healthy and a win away to clinch the playoffs. The attitude for them in this game is seeing if they can hang with teams like the Rams. Their defense is as good as the Rams so it is disrespectful that they are not a 3 point favorite. 

Other picks and raw results of the machine learning models are posted on my channel on Rokfin.