Week 13 Machine Learning Picks

Totally forgot to post this here last week...I'll post week 14 right after 

Great teaser opportunities this week with some heavy favorites. A dog money line is screaming bet me based on recency bias and players returning. We discuss 4 opportunity games and 3 honorable mentions that are worth some units.

Arizona should've covered last week. We on the right side of a game where everything that had to go wrong did. Vegas was a bad pick. I should've seen it coming when I saw the Raiders sack rate and how they weren't going to get close to Matt Ryan, lesson learned. Seattle was money if you bet it before Sunday at 5 and even 6.

This week we take advantage of back up QBs, recency bias, and note some key players returning. Here we go!

Miami -11.5

That's a lot of points, but this spread should be 14 when Cincinnati has Brandon Allen as its QB. The difference here will be the Miami defense which allows 18pts per game and is ranked 9th against the pass. Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins an even better chance to cover. He throws deeper and has thrown for 417 yards against these Bengals last year.
  • Miami is 6-1 ATS the last 7 games
  • Cincinnati with a back up QB against a tough hungry top 5 defense
  • Cincinnati's defense is bottom 5. 3.2% sack rate ranks 29th
  • More confident if Fitzpatrick starts the game
  • Both teams have had easy schedules
  • Models very confident on spotting a blowout in this game

Las Vegas -9

Vegas gets blown out last week but have beaten the Chiefs (almost twice) and yet they are a single digit favorite against the spread? This spread should also be 14. Huge recency bias here.
  • Sam Darnold sucks, no need to say more.
  • Vegas has played the toughest schedule in the league
  • Vegas is 6-0 ATS when they score more than their average (26.8)
  • Vegas is 7-4 ATS and the Jets are 3-8
  • Road teams favorite by more than 6 are 62% ATS since 2015 in 106 games

Cleveland +5.5

I'm not a money line guy but this games screams upset. Although the model displayed below with a confident of 57% has Tennessee winning anywhere between 3 and 4, most of the other ones had Cleveland winning. Note also that Tennessee is coming off a big win last week.
  • Myles Garret is back in the line up and will add to his 9.5 sacks for the year
  • These are similar teams in terms of overall defense and offensive rushing yards
  • The only risk is Baker, he does need to step up against a Titans defense that allows more than 268 yards in the air and are ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate
  • Titans coming off two big wins against the Colts and the Ravens screams recency bias

Indianapolis -3.5

What happens when Watson has no one to pass to? He scrambles and throws the ball away. This Houston team just lost its steam because Fuller took some PEDs. The 3.5 spread is an indication that the books want you to take Houston but it doesn't seem to be working as Indi is getting 68% of the bets and 90% of the money. Usually that would be something to worry, but this spread should've moved more when Houston's number 1 and 2 target are out. Easy money!