Week 9 Machine Learning Point Spread Picks
66.7% ATS on locks last week. This week we keep pounding weak and banged up teams and find opportunities based on trends and recency bias.
Last week we should've been perfect if Bruce Arians listened to Tom Brady and had gone on 4th & 1 at the 20. I still think it was the right spot and fortunately Daniel Jones missed so many long ball if not Tampa loses that game. This week a dug deep because there are so many injuries and new QBs that forced me out of many games. At the same time, if the models are pointing to the right direction and the team is banged up, we're going to take advantage. Which is why the first team I'm gonna talk about is Green Bay. Raiders and Chiefs were money.
Green Bay -7 TNF
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss are 31-15 ATS. The list of injured players in SF is too long for me to write. The 49ers are a totally different and weaker team than when they started this year and especially who they were last week. Green Bay couldn't stop the run last week and their defense has been pretty bad against the pass. This week Kittle is out and Bourne tested positive. Mostert is out so they won't be able to run the rock. Packers should be ok on defense. Their #2 offense will score +35 points against a pass D ranked #17 and sinking. Also, road teams on TNF this year have covered 5-2 ATS and road favorites since 2000 have gone 42-31 (57%). Not a high confidence game from a model perspective, but this week the market realizes how bad the 49ers have become.
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