Week 11 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks
Home team favorites are covering 45% ATS this year. Models detect two opportunities in this trend. Two other picks find undervalued teams. First week where all the data used to predict is in 2020. Models are 58% ATS overall since week 5. We bet all top picks and honorable mentions this week. Let's dig in.
Last week wasn't great. Only one of the top 3 picks hit and 2 of the 3 honorable picks. Seattle's crumbling and the weather in Baltimore didn't help and we paid for it. We did bank on fading the 49ers and Indy on TNF. My Chicago-born wife told me to never bet on the Bears and she was right. On MNF their offense looked as bad as their DVOA or worse. This week, we make all seemingly good picks official picks and we got 4 solid ones.
Miami -3.5
The typical 3.5 trap to bet the other side. Don't fall for it. The models have the underrated Dolphins winning by almost a TD and other models have it by 2 TDs. This spread will move higher as Miami is getting lots of money from the sharps.
- Captain + Injuries: Tua > Driskel
- Trends: Away favorites by 3.5 are 57% ATS since 2010
- DVOA: Denver has the worst rank offense in the NFL. They won't score much against a slightly above average and hot Miami defense.
- SOS: One point for Denver. The Broncos have had a tougher schedule than Miami according to teamrankings.com, but it hasn't been that easy. They've faced the Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, and Bills. While the Broncos have lost against the Steelers, Titans, Bucaneers, and Chiefs.
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