Models in general did well again last week going 9 of 14 across all games. Next week we up the ante. This week we analyze some of these big spread games and capitalize on spotted trends.
Quick Review of Last Week's Top 5 Picks
Philadelphia was a bust on Thursday night. They had their chances and 3 turnovers but couldn't capitalize. I should've know better that divisional TNF games stay tight.
The Rams D was too much for Chicago and their defense couldn't stop the run. This week we look closely at these metrics as we make the picks.
Tampa Bay was money and dominated as they should've.
Green Bay rebounded from their loss as expected and blew out a Houston team that was over-rated.
Fade the Cowboys at a pick was legit. Not sure if at +9 against the Eagles is a good idea, but we caught it just in time.
Las Vegas +2.5
This is the models' favorite game but not necessarily mine. Can't put emotions or opinions on it so I'm running it as the top pick (even though I spread the love evenly across games). Vegas' weakness is the rush defense and if Kareem Hunt plays along with Chubb, they could run past the Raiders. The Raiders' passing offense and Derek Carr are ranked 8th in the league and are playing a passing defense ranked 25th. Both defenses are pretty bad but the passing game from the Raiders travels faster than the Browns running game. With Odell being out, that's one less weapon in their arsenal. All my models have Vegas winning this game outright and the 2.5 point spread to me seems like a trap to go after the Browns. The Raiders getting most of the action when the line opened at 3.5, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to 3.