Week 8 Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

Models in general did well again last week going 9 of 14 across all games. Next week we up the ante. This week we analyze some of these big spread games and capitalize on spotted trends.

Quick Review of Last Week's Top 5 Picks

Philadelphia was a bust on Thursday night. They had their chances and 3 turnovers but couldn't capitalize. I should've know better that divisional TNF games stay tight.

The Rams D was too much for Chicago and their defense couldn't stop the run. This week we look closely at these metrics as we make the picks.

Tampa Bay was money and dominated as they should've.

Green Bay rebounded from their loss as expected and blew out a Houston team that was over-rated.

Fade the Cowboys at a pick was legit. Not sure if at +9 against the Eagles is a good idea, but we caught it just in time.

Las Vegas +2.5

This is the models' favorite game but not necessarily mine. Can't put emotions or opinions on it so I'm running it as the top pick (even though I spread the love evenly across games). Vegas' weakness is the rush defense and if Kareem Hunt plays along with Chubb, they could run past the Raiders. The Raiders' passing offense and Derek Carr are ranked 8th in the league and are playing a passing defense ranked 25th. Both defenses are pretty bad but the passing game from the Raiders travels faster than the Browns running game. With Odell being out, that's one less weapon in their arsenal. All my models have Vegas winning this game outright and the 2.5 point spread to me seems like a trap to go after the Browns. The Raiders getting most of the action when the line opened at 3.5, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back to 3.

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Week 7 Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

The miraculous Titans cover on Sunday and a perfect 2 for 2 on MNF put us at 75% ATS for the top 4 picks last week. The models' overall accuracy of 71% ATS across all games gives me lots of confidence going into week 7. This week, 3 games with high confidence and a few more worth mentioning. Let's talk about it.

Philadelphia -4.5
The predictions across the ensemble range from 7 to 10 all with great confidence of 60%+. The Eagles have had a much tougher schedule this year already faced Rams, Steelers, and the Ravens last week. This week they get DeSean Jackson back playing against a #23 passing defense in the Giants. Doug Pederson will out-coach the Giants and has done so on TNF twice in his career and is 5-0 with the Eagles on TNF. Eagles getting 65% of the tickets and 72% of the money. Fly Eagles Fly!

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Week 6 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

One of my favorite spots with a 60% ATS trend since 2013 is picked up by the models in 3 games. The 4th pick shows home field AND recency bias. This week looks big with opportunity. Let's dig. Get all picks at rokfin.com/nflpickles

Green Bay -1 
The best offense by far gets back Davante Adams and is facing a cry baby back-to-last year Brady. Although Godwin is back for the Buccaneers, they're "great" defense finally gets to defend a good offense (Bears, Chargers, Broncos and Panthers all have below avg offenses). This looks like a shoot out and Rodgers looks like the likely winner here. All my models have this game going GB by over 10, the average close to 13. The confidence is high because of the situation (model high on the visiting team and successful across years). Although the Packers are getting the majority of the tickets, it's a good sign that even a higher percentage of the money (big bets) are also going to the Packers.

Week 5 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

Last week, we stuck to our strategy of finding stronger teams beat much weaker teams with single-digit spreads and it paid off big time last week. Bills, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, KC, and Cincinnati all covered. The only disappointment being the Cardinals. This week there's a bit of that, but mostly the theme this week is recency bias. 

Recency bias is a plague and we have spotted it. Line makers and the public seem to only remember one week. You're smarter than that. 4 great opportunities spotted, let's roll.

Here are the games that my models have picked with significantly higher confidence:

Indianapolis -1.5

A home field and recency bias all in one. Cleveland is home therefore they get at least 3 points but probably more by line setters. 49 points last week for the Browns! WOW. Try that against the #1 defense according to DVOA. All my models have the Colts winning by at least 10 points. A better spread would probably be -3 so I'll jump on those points. I've hated on Rivers before and his 24th ranked offense is nothing to be impressed about. The Browns have won 3 in a row (vs Bengals, "W Team", and Cowboys), seems like a great spot to fade them.

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Week 4 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

The models have detected 5 opportunities. Double-digit predictions on single-digit point spreads. It's only week 4, I know we're just warming up. We're sprinkling some here and there, nothing serious yet. Still, these are some eye-opening numbers. Let's dig in.

New Orleans -4.5

I get it, the Saints defense isn't good. Surprisingly they're still ranked #12 in DVOA. Mostly because they can stop the run, but are having issues with passing. But you know what, Michael Thomas is back! Without him, they still were able to put 30 points on the board. This team scores 40 and Detroit won't be able to get anywhere near that. Detroit's D is the opposite. First, they aren't good either. They're better at stopping the pass which might be bad for Drew Brees. This might either mean they haven't faced a Thomas or that they will depend more on Kamara. This smells blowout, the Saints by two TDs.

Arizona -3.5

A big asterisk here for Hopkins. If he plays, then it's a play if not stay away. I like Arizona coming off a loss and the Panthers coming off a win. People including myself talk a lot about Murray and Hopkins and how dynamic they are. But the Cardinals defense has allowed 61 points in 3 games ranked 7th close to KC and PIT. They're defense DVOA is also ranked 7th and is 22% better against the run. Initial money is going to Carolina which is another reason to wait and see if you can get it at 3. I got Arizona also by more than 2 TDs against potentially the worst defense in the NFL.

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