Who doesn't like to brag about their accomplishments? I'll make it short, I promise. First a bit of history.
In 2005, as I was finishing my doctoral thesis in Stochastic Games, I met a finance professor who had just published a paper on how he could predict the outcomes of figure skating results. His paper explained the use of an ensemble of models with traditional regression components, human bias, and a situational component. My mind was spinning with ideas and we talked for hours. The ensemble component was amazing and is probably the beginnings of what today is called AI. Human Bias is market inefficiencies; aka prices determined by people. Finally, the situational component (location, ice, competitors) is all the situations that could be captured at the beginning of a game. Although I didn't have much knowledge of the NFL at the time, in a short time I got access to over 20 years of NFL Point Spread Data, and the rest is money.
Thank you to all who support and profit from my work. Last year was an amazing season. Here are some quick highlights:
62.5% ATS for the season
80% ROI if you followed my rules, but likely doubled your money if you spent more during the playoffs
67% during the playoffs with a correct prediction for the Super Bowl which puts me at 12 of 13 during the last 13 years