Week 3 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

Last week's most confidence pick, the Rams, was such an easy win. A strong offense and pretty good defense against a weak Eagles team all around. Money.

We have two weeks of data under our database. DVOA metrics are out. The strength of schedule is a bit wild but we're starting to look at it. We use all of the tools at hand to continue to dump on mismatch ups with single-digit spreads being careful of a week heavy with injuries. 

LA Chargers -6.5

Carolina is not looking good and now MacCaffrey is out. Chargers according to DVOA are about 5% below average vs Carolina at -20%. They rank similar in offense and the defense is their differentiator. With MacCaffrey out, that offense DVOA should be a lot less. The models even by weighing recent games more heavily, all project the Chargers to win by over two TDs. Chargers are at home too, which is weird why this isn't even a TD for a spread. Milk the weak team. Carolina is 0-2 ATS and will be one of the teams that stays at 0-3 while the Chargers are 2-0 and the market doesn't seem to have caught up. Interesting that most of the money is on Carolina, that's good!

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NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2, 2020

With only one week in the bag, some of these week's spreads scream recency bias. There are teams that are hyped up too much and others that are just plain garbage. Let's dig in. 

We got 4 visiting teams covering the spread this week. Last year as you may know, we pounded visiting teams because the home field advantage was over rated for some teams. One of the main trends was that strong teams on the road was a killer strategy and it worked. We had over 70% ATS success with visiting teams we found undervalued. Not sure some of these visiting teams are strong, but the home teams seem week. Here are the picks:

LA RAMS pk

I've never been a huge fan of Carson Wentz. Last year they covered 7 of 17 (41%) and last week didn't seem like an improvement. Yes, they have some guys in the OL coming back this week but without Jeffrey they don't seem to be a big threat offensively. They also allowed 27 points against Washington. Meanwhile the Rams looked solid especially on defense. They're gonna come crashing and I expect a few turnovers from the Eagles. The models really like this game and so do the sharps and everyone on the planet but like about 18% which is probably all Eagles fans. Should be an easy win for the Rams.

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NFL Point Spread Model Results - Week 1, 2020

Week 1 model results are out! They are very interesting. Last year we picked on a lot of visiting teams, but this week the 3 of the top 4 picks with most confidence are home teams. I usually don't bet on week 1 through 4. Definitely when the pick includes teams which changed QBs (e.g. Tampa, Indianapolis) or made significant trades (e.g. Arizona). Stay away would be my advice or sprinkle it in just to make it more fun to watch. 

 There were times I didn't even run the models the first few weeks because only start keeping track of ATS % and ROI until week 5. People have asked me for the results and I think it's good for newcomers to start getting familiar with the system. I didn't deep dive on these as I usually do in looking at DVOA, sharp money, trends and other data I like to geek on. Here are the point spread model outputs for week 1 of the NFL!

You can get the whole list of games from week 1 to week 6 FREE on my channel on Rokfin. Why Rokfin? It's a long story, but it's only $9.99. You get emails and notifications when I post and a bunch of other channels included for the same subscription. If you've been tracking me over the years, you know $50 for the whole year it's a deal when compared to the many fake handicappers out there. I do the research and we all win money.

 

Why is NFL Pickles so Damn Good?

 Who doesn't like to brag about their accomplishments? I'll make it short, I promise. First a bit of history.

About

In 2005, as I was finishing my doctoral thesis in Stochastic Games, I met a finance professor who had just published a paper on how he could predict the outcomes of figure skating results. His paper explained the use of an ensemble of models with traditional regression components, human bias, and a situational component. My mind was spinning with ideas and we talked for hours. The ensemble component was amazing and is probably the beginnings of what today is called AI. Human Bias is market inefficiencies; aka prices determined by people. Finally, the situational component (location, ice, competitors) is all the situations that could be captured at the beginning of a game. Although I didn't have much knowledge of the NFL at the time, in a short time I got access to over 20 years of NFL Point Spread Data, and the rest is money.

2019 Results

Thank you to all who support and profit from my work. Last year was an amazing season. Here are some quick highlights:

• 62.5% ATS for the season
• 80% ROI if you followed my rules, but likely doubled your money if you spent more during the playoffs
• 67% during the playoffs with a correct prediction for the Super Bowl which puts me at 12 of 13 during the last 13 years

Read the whole article for FREE on Rokfin.