NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs 2018
Pick 1: Indianapolis +5 
Pick 2: Dallas +7
Pick 3: Philadelphia +8
What a wild Wildcard playoff week it was! All picks cashed in and if you caught Dallas early at less than two (I didn't) then you got 4 correct picks from these computer-based predictions. It was 3 road dogs and this week I expect road dogs to also bark loud. During the season, home teams did better than the usual average of a 3-point margin which might be bringing these spreads higher. Same argument as last week, road dogs have won 55% ATS in the last 5 years. The models' output this week is slightly different in that there's not one pick that is super confident (green). We go below our threshold to make 3 picks of the week and leave out the New England game because I'm not ready to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs just yet.
Indi all in again: Love this pick and follows the trend that first playoff appearance QBs are like 30% ATS. Last week all 3 first playoff QBs not only lost against the spread but straight up (Trubisky, Watson, and Jackson). KC is scary but their D sucks (2nd worst in passing yards allowed) and their offense is not as dominant as it was when Hunt was on the lineup. Indi is on a roll at 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games and it's just fun to watch Andrew Luck. Indi's running game with Mack will burn the clock down. Colts +5
Foles' magic: This guy is mentally strong and continues to prove so under pressure. After a terrible first half, the guy went to the locker room and idk what he did but he came out ballin'. The models using only the data for the last four weeks (removing the NO/CAR week 17 game) projects a potential upset. If left as usual and weighing recent games more, the models have the Saints winning by a field goal. Regardless, we bet against the spread: Eagles +8
Dallas D: The Cowboys stopped the best running offense in the NFL last week. This week they face probably the best running back (although supposedly Gurley is slightly hurt) and will make Goff throw the ball. Goff hasn't performed that well as of late. I do think the Rams will find a way to win, but it'll be harder than they think and 7 points seem too big. This year, the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS when they're underdogs. Cowboys on the road doesn't excite me and their pass rush will hurt Dak and potentially cause turnovers. The Rams running D isn't great either and Elliot is a beast. It's gonna be close. Cowboys +7
Patriots Win: Gordon is not playing and the models estimate the Chargers to win. The confidence is so low that you can make an argument to bet the other side. I usually don't and leave the game out. Patriots mentality and strategy is so good that I'm not betting against them but because of the models' output, I'm not going to go against them either. They are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 home games and 61% ATS in the playoffs (13 games) during the last 10 years. Patriots -4
Anyways, lets make it interesting! Here are 2018 divisional playoff computerized statistical picks:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Dallas +7
Pick 3: Philadelphia +8
What a wild Wildcard playoff week it was! All picks cashed in and if you caught Dallas early at less than two (I didn't) then you got 4 correct picks from these computer-based predictions. It was 3 road dogs and this week I expect road dogs to also bark loud. During the season, home teams did better than the usual average of a 3-point margin which might be bringing these spreads higher. Same argument as last week, road dogs have won 55% ATS in the last 5 years. The models' output this week is slightly different in that there's not one pick that is super confident (green). We go below our threshold to make 3 picks of the week and leave out the New England game because I'm not ready to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs just yet.
Indi all in again: Love this pick and follows the trend that first playoff appearance QBs are like 30% ATS. Last week all 3 first playoff QBs not only lost against the spread but straight up (Trubisky, Watson, and Jackson). KC is scary but their D sucks (2nd worst in passing yards allowed) and their offense is not as dominant as it was when Hunt was on the lineup. Indi is on a roll at 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games and it's just fun to watch Andrew Luck. Indi's running game with Mack will burn the clock down. Colts +5
Foles' magic: This guy is mentally strong and continues to prove so under pressure. After a terrible first half, the guy went to the locker room and idk what he did but he came out ballin'. The models using only the data for the last four weeks (removing the NO/CAR week 17 game) projects a potential upset. If left as usual and weighing recent games more, the models have the Saints winning by a field goal. Regardless, we bet against the spread: Eagles +8
Dallas D: The Cowboys stopped the best running offense in the NFL last week. This week they face probably the best running back (although supposedly Gurley is slightly hurt) and will make Goff throw the ball. Goff hasn't performed that well as of late. I do think the Rams will find a way to win, but it'll be harder than they think and 7 points seem too big. This year, the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS when they're underdogs. Cowboys on the road doesn't excite me and their pass rush will hurt Dak and potentially cause turnovers. The Rams running D isn't great either and Elliot is a beast. It's gonna be close. Cowboys +7
Patriots Win: Gordon is not playing and the models estimate the Chargers to win. The confidence is so low that you can make an argument to bet the other side. I usually don't and leave the game out. Patriots mentality and strategy is so good that I'm not betting against them but because of the models' output, I'm not going to go against them either. They are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 home games and 61% ATS in the playoffs (13 games) during the last 10 years. Patriots -4
Anyways, lets make it interesting! Here are 2018 divisional playoff computerized statistical picks:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY | -5 | 4.00 | 9.00 | 58.15 |
| DALLAS @ LA RAMS | -7 | -3.70 | 3.33 | 57.07 |
| PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS | -8 | -3.0 | 5.01 | 56.00 |
| LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND | -4 | 2.5 | 6.51 | 41.94 |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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