NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Championship

Pick 1: Patriots +3 correct NFL point spread pick

A disappointing week on the divisional playoffs to say the least. Should've stayed away from a few of those games and bet against the Chargers offense who hadn't demonstrated they had what it takes to play against a top offense. The models this week have one game somewhat confidence an another that doesn't pass the threshold. That means I'm going all in on Patriots. I love betting Patriots just like the public, but when the number point it I'm salivating. Underdogs? I don't think so... The first time playoff QB in Mahomes will show against a fierce Bellicheck strategy. The Patriots can score, we know that, and KC doesn't have a great defense even though the Colts couldn't score last week.

As for the Saints game, it's just a toss-up. The confidence isn't there to back up a pick. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. Hopefully, I'll enjoy it. The numbers are pointing Saints but although the Saints haven't looked good in a while, they still find a way to win. It's gonna be Brees vs Brady Super Bowl and that's probably what the NFL wants (for those thinking conspiracy theory).

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY -3.00 1.40 4.45 59.57
LA RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS -3.50 -7.30 -3.83 50.00

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.