NFL Point Spread Picks - Conference Championship
Pick 1: Patriots +3 
A disappointing week on the divisional playoffs to say the least. Should've stayed away from a few of those games and bet against the Chargers offense who hadn't demonstrated they had what it takes to play against a top offense. The models this week have one game somewhat confidence an another that doesn't pass the threshold. That means I'm going all in on Patriots. I love betting Patriots just like the public, but when the number point it I'm salivating. Underdogs? I don't think so... The first time playoff QB in Mahomes will show against a fierce Bellicheck strategy. The Patriots can score, we know that, and KC doesn't have a great defense even though the Colts couldn't score last week.
As for the Saints game, it's just a toss-up. The confidence isn't there to back up a pick. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. Hopefully, I'll enjoy it. The numbers are pointing Saints but although the Saints haven't looked good in a while, they still find a way to win. It's gonna be Brees vs Brady Super Bowl and that's probably what the NFL wants (for those thinking conspiracy theory).
How to read the table:
A disappointing week on the divisional playoffs to say the least. Should've stayed away from a few of those games and bet against the Chargers offense who hadn't demonstrated they had what it takes to play against a top offense. The models this week have one game somewhat confidence an another that doesn't pass the threshold. That means I'm going all in on Patriots. I love betting Patriots just like the public, but when the number point it I'm salivating. Underdogs? I don't think so... The first time playoff QB in Mahomes will show against a fierce Bellicheck strategy. The Patriots can score, we know that, and KC doesn't have a great defense even though the Colts couldn't score last week.
As for the Saints game, it's just a toss-up. The confidence isn't there to back up a pick. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one. Hopefully, I'll enjoy it. The numbers are pointing Saints but although the Saints haven't looked good in a while, they still find a way to win. It's gonna be Brees vs Brady Super Bowl and that's probably what the NFL wants (for those thinking conspiracy theory).
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY | -3.00 | 1.40 | 4.45 | 59.57 |
| LA RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS | -3.50 | -7.30 | -3.83 | 50.00 |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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