NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17 2018
Pick 1: Chicago +4.5 
Pick 2: Kansas City -13.5
Pick 3: Seattle -13
There's nowhere to go but up. Yes, I just saw Mary Poppins and that's how I feel about this year. It can't get worse. I've had forty some percent years before but not as low as this week. My models have tended to favor visiting teams and home dogs are like at 57% this year. In reality, they should adjust over the course of the season and they haven't so idk yet what's behind all this but I'm determined to figure it out. Maybe it's the luck of the draw, injuries, the bugs at the beginning, whatever no excuses. At least I'm feeling a bit optimistic for the playoffs bc traditionally even in bad years the picks are solid. For week 17 most years I shy away from making picks, but this year we need at least some momentum going into the playoffs. There are a few games that teams are playing for bye or for their spot that came out with decent confidence. Here are week 17 NFL machine learning picks:
Pick 2: Kansas City -13.5
Pick 3: Seattle -13
There's nowhere to go but up. Yes, I just saw Mary Poppins and that's how I feel about this year. It can't get worse. I've had forty some percent years before but not as low as this week. My models have tended to favor visiting teams and home dogs are like at 57% this year. In reality, they should adjust over the course of the season and they haven't so idk yet what's behind all this but I'm determined to figure it out. Maybe it's the luck of the draw, injuries, the bugs at the beginning, whatever no excuses. At least I'm feeling a bit optimistic for the playoffs bc traditionally even in bad years the picks are solid. For week 17 most years I shy away from making picks, but this year we need at least some momentum going into the playoffs. There are a few games that teams are playing for bye or for their spot that came out with decent confidence. Here are week 17 NFL machine learning picks:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA | -4.5 | -3.30 | 1.17 | 59.09 |
| OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY | -13.5 | -16.30 | -2.83 | 58.17 |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | -13.0 | -21.30 | -8.33 | 57.85 |
| MIAMI @ BUFFALO | -3.5 | -2.30 | 1.17 | 55.52 |
| NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND | -13.5 | -7.30 | 6.83 | 55.06 |
| CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | -14.5 | -10.30 | 4.23 | 52.17 |
| DALLAS @ NY GIANTS | -6.0 | 1.00 | 5.04 | 51.28 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | -6.5 | -10.80 | -4.27 | 50.06 |
| CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | -6.0 | -7.30 | -1.33 | 50.00 |
| ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY | 1.5 | -1.30 | 0.22 | 50.00 |
| DETROIT @ GREEN BAY | -8.0 | -6.70 | 1.30 | 48.37 |
| DENVER @ LA CHARGERS | -6.5 | -12.00 | -5.50 | 48.37 |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ LA RAMS | -9.5 | -14.70 | -5.21 | 45.29 |
| CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -7.5 | -14.70 | -7.21 | NA |
| PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 7.0 | -3.70 | -10.67 | NA |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE | 3.0 | 6.50 | 3.50 | NA |
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